Real Estate Will Once Again Be Big in Japan

In the late 1990s, nobody cared about gold funds like the then-dormant Central Fund of Canada (CEF). When gold, along with commodities as an asset class, got hot a half-decade later, the closed-end fund found a wider audience.

The point is that you've got to have the right product at the right moment. Sometimes a product is a good product, yet just slightly ahead of its time. Northern Trust (NTRS), better known as a conservative custody and asset-management outfit than a capital-markets innovator, finds itself in that situation with its recently launched but so far undiscovered NETS Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index ETF (JRE).

Northern Trust is dabbling in ETFs? Indeed. In April, just as the equity markets began falling apart, Northern Trust launched a series of ETFs that, given the equity markets since then, have largely been ignored. Most are country-specific stock funds that, unlike the popular iShares ETFs, are actually based on the index for which a country's equity market is most widely known. For example, the NETS CAC40 Index Fund (FRC) actually tracks France's widely quoted CAC, whereas iShares France (EWQ) follows the lesser-known MSCI France Index.

JRE doesn't track the Japanese equity markets, as does the NETS TOPIX Index Fund (TYI) or the popular iShares Japan (EWJ). Instead, JRE tracks the Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index, a capitalization-weighted index of all Real Estate Investment Trusts listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Now common in the U.S., REITs were first introduced in Japan in 2000. They're referred to as J-REITs, and to my knowledge JRE is the only domestic fund that offers a pure play.

That alone should pique your interest. I can remember having to recommend funds like American Century International Bond (BEGBX) on Fox News back in the early 2000s when it was nearly impossible for a regular investor not trading futures or the spot market to get exposure to foreign exchange. The flood of new products usually only comes after the big moves have been made.

NETS Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index (JRE) – 2 month

As an asset class, real estate has gone through a complete bull market and reversal since I first began writing about it back in 2001. At that time, most investors were still waiting on the rebound in Sun Microsystems (JAVA) or JDS Uniphase (JDSU). Largely unknown to the mainstream, REITs were yielding double-digits and showing a quiet, consistent strength. They went on to historic gains for most of the 2000s, until getting destroyed since the beginning of 2007. Right now, real estate is by no means in a bull market.

Regular readers know I've been interested in Japan in recent months, investing in many of the securities mentioned in this story. So far I've been largely unsuccessful given the global rout in stocks and the Nikkei's move down to 26-year lows. NTT DoCoMo (DCM) has held up particularly well, although once-promising names like Kubota (KUB), Hitachi (HIT) and Promise Co. (PMSEY) have been thrashed.

Shares of J-REITS have also fallen sharply, as reflected in the 24% drop in JRE since its September introduction. It's largest holding (20.04%), Nippon Building Fund, is down 57% from its May 2007 high, while its second-largest, Japan Real Estate Investment Corp. (14.85%) is off by 54% since the same high. These stocks, neither of which trades independently in the U.S., are undeniably weak -- as is actual bricks-and-mortar real estate in Japan. Data from the Japanese government show commercial real estate prices at mid-1970s levels and down 70% from their early 1990s highs.

Source: Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Land Price Data

Knowing that the asset class has been shunned, there's the very real possibility this fund could get shut down. The ETF business itself is shrinking, with smaller firms like FocusShares and HealthShares closing or consolidating funds. JRE has gathered a scant $2 million in assets and would be an easy candidate to shutter if the NETS unit was scaled back.

To me, a stock is like sushi: You generally don't want it on sale. One can objectively say that right now Japanese REITs are by no means in a bull market. But one day, most likely when few are actually paying attention, this unique asset class will enter a new bull phase. When that occurs, this will be the fund you'll want to own.