First Half of 2008 Yields Losers, a Few Winners

WHEN WE TALK TO fund managers, especially the ones that have been around the block a few times, they often rehash stories about what it was like to deal with some of the market's worst calamities. We've heard tales about the Nifty Fifty, junk bonds, the '87 crash, the S&L crisis and the tech boom and bust. We're certain this year, including Thursday's 358-point drop on the Dow, will join that long line of infamous events.

Yet even during this tough stretch there are both winners and losers. Indeed, according to Lipper, 70 of the 78 fund categories it tracks have lost money year-to-date through Thursday. Within each group, though, are funds that have weathered the storm admirably. We are sure both camps will be happy to put this time period behind them and chalk it up to a lesson learned, regardless of whether they made money or not.

This week our fund screen breaks with its tradition of looking at the lowest-cost, best long-term-performing funds in a particular part of the industry to focus solely on one piece of criteria: returns in the first half of 2008. For this screen we consider the entire realm of funds — both mutual and exchange-traded ones — and we don't knock any out of consideration based on how high their fees are, how small they are, what minimum investment they require or if they charge a sales load. This screen simply looks at the funds that turned out the biggest numbers in nine fund categories and those that didn't in those same groups. The funds are listed on the next page.

We usually don't focus on such a short time period of six months. But in this economic climate in particular, investors can glean interesting insights by looking at these returns. They may be able to spot early changes in stock-market leadership or notice a particular fund has hit the skids, prompting a decision to buy or sell it before things get too out of whack. Those insights can impact portfolio returns for years to come.

We mention these funds, especially the winners, without any implied stamp of approval. Indeed, in most cases, the funds that posted big gains through the first two quarters of 2008 were geared toward commodities and energy and are speculative in nature. These funds could just as easily find themselves in the loser's column by the end of the year (or at least in the middle of the pack).

According to preliminary data from Lipper that runs through Thursday's close, the average broad-focused domestic equity fund lost 9.7% this year; the average world equity fund dropped 11.9%. Within those two broad categories, the average midcap core fund managed to hold losses to 6% while large-cap value funds posted the biggest deficit — an average 12.9%; Latin American funds gained 4.7% to lead the international category while China funds brought up the rear with an average loss of 25.5%.

How did the industry's 25 largest funds do? Pimco Total Return (PTTAX) bond fund has returned 1.7% so far this year, the best of the bunch. Dodge & Cox Stock (DODGX), on the other hand, finished at the bottom of the list with a 15.4% loss. S&P 500 Index funds also fared poorly.

Sector funds that were the real highfliers. Energy and commodities were red hot. Those two categories returned 15.5% and 29.8%, respectively, in 2008. And as obvious a call as energy was, it was even easier to predict which sector funds would be sitting squarely in the basement: Financial-services funds averaged a loss of 23.2%.

One category to keep an eye on: small caps. In 2008 small-cap funds — growth, value and core offerings combined — posted around an average 9% loss. But during the last quarter they have shown signs of turning a corner with an average gain of around two percentage points. These funds have been out of favor for several years. Stay tuned to see if investors fall in love with them again.

The Criteria
The funds listed in our screen were among the ones that posted the highest and lowest returns in nine key categories. We didn't eliminate any funds due to costs or long-term performance or because of high minimum investments. Because of that, we offer these funds without mentioning them as possible contenders for a place in your portfolio. And they certainly aren't the only offerings to take it on the chin. If you'd like to search the winners and losers in categories we didn't include, click on our fund screener tool.

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