After 15 years, Japan's Economy Starting to Recover

PATIENCE MAY BE a virtue, but in investing it is all too often a vice. Take Japan: For nearly 15 years value investors have been waiting for the catalyst to pull the country out of its economic malaise. And for 15 years investors have been frustrated. But now some of the best bargain hunters around are saying that Japan is heading toward a new dawn — and this time it's for real.

Granted, the past offers plenty of fodder for skeptics. After all, Japan can be described as "a perpetual Ben Graham, deep-value Easter egg hunt," says William Browne, managing director of the Tweedy, Browne Global Value fund. Japanese corporate and cultural behavior has been slow to change, and the threat of a global economic recession certainly hasn't helped matters. But Browne — like many top value managers — has been steadily buying more in Japan. The appeal is simple: Many firms, particularly industrials, have never been as cheap or as cash-rich as they are now, says Matt Lamphier, senior analyst at First Eagle, whose Japan exposure is the largest it has ever been. Companies stung by years of deflation have stockpiled cash, and many are twice as profitable as European and U.S. rivals but trade at a third to half the price.

Also, unlike consumers here and in Europe, Japanese are not saddled with excessive debt, and their banks have strong balance sheets, says Ben Moyer, manager of the BlackRock Pacific fund. Japanese firms have also become more shareholder-friendly, returning almost half of net profits last year through dividends and buybacks.

Opportunities abound, with this year's global sell-off pushing even larger firms to attractive levels, says Robert Wyckoff Jr., another managing director at Tweedy, Brown Global Value. The best bets are firms returning cash to shareholders or using it to make smart acquisitions. Companies tapping into the growth in India and China are also attractive.

Perhaps the most unlikely piece of good news for Japan is inflation. To keep deflation from eating at their savings, Japanese hoarded cash in bank deposits. Rising prices could push Japanese companies and consumers to get more for their cash by spending or investing it. As a result, the angst elsewhere in the world could ultimately offer the elusive catalyst, says Matthews's Japan Manager Taizo Ishida. Now, there's a silver lining.