5 Stock Bargains, Based on Sales

A small pay increase or cut for a worker can make an extreme difference in the amount of pocket money left each month after the bills are paid. For much the same reason, moderate changes in corporate sales can lead to huge swings in earnings. Last quarter, companies in the S&P 500 index reported a 16.5% decline in sales vs. a year earlier. Earnings plunged 39%.

For stock investors, the relative stability of sales makes the measure more reliable than earnings for purposes of deciding which companies are cheap. Run a search for low price/sales ratios and you’ll uncover promising stocks that a search for low price/earnings ratios might miss. Moreover, according to market researchers like James O’Shaughnessy, who conducted a study of the matter for his investment guide “What Works On Wall Street,” the P/S ratio is a better predictor of stock performance than the P/E.

The companies below have low P/S ratios, stable or growing sales, strong balance sheets and decent dividends.

Boeing (BA) last week announced another delay in the test flight of its fuel-efficient 787 jetliner, which is now two years behind schedule. Qantas, the Australian carrier, cancelled orders for 15 of them. The delays are embarrassing for Boeing, but not uncommon in the industry, and analysts see little danger of customers defecting to its European competitor, Airbus, which is years behind Boeing in development of its competing A350 (although some carriers, like Qantas, might use the delays as an opportunity to put off orders during the current travel downturn). Boeing’s sales are still expected to increase 11% this year, and profits are projected to rise 23%. I recommended the stock in early March as one of “9 Stocks That Could Double Your Money.” It’s up 42% since that column ran but still looks cheap and comes with a 4% dividend yield.

Nothing says “recession” quite like canned chili. While most casual dining chains are suffering sales declines this year, Hormel Foods (HRL) is on pace for a 2% improvement in sales and an 11% rise in profits. The stock has climbed 12% since I highlighted it at the end of 2008 in a search for insider buying, but its P/S ratio still stands at a discount of 25% to that of Kraft (KFT). The company has a pristine balance sheet and pays a 2.2% dividend. It has topped Wall Street’s earnings forecasts in recent quarters by double-digit percentages, suggesting operational momentum that’s catching investors by surprise.

Scott’s Miracle-Gro (SMG) had a painful urea problem when I recommended the stock in July 2008. The nitrogen-rich compound, discarded freely by humans but manufactured by chemical companies using ammonia and carbon dioxide, had soared to $800 a ton on agricultural markets, crimping profits for fertilizer sellers, including Scott’s. A ton of the stuff now costs closer to $250, just in time for Scott’s to lock in new supply contracts. Shares are up 81% since my recommendation, vs. a 27% decline for the S&P 500. Even now, they still look reasonably priced, and while the stock’s 1.4% dividend yield is puny, it’s also easily affordable relative to profits.

Have a look if you like at the table below, which has details on these three and two other companies my P/S search recently turned up.