6 Stocks That Insiders Are Buying

The bosses are bullish — especially ones that are best at timing stock purchases.

When company executives and board members purchase their companies’ shares for their personal accounts, they must publicly report the trades. Long-term studies suggest such “insider” purchases tend to predict market-beating performance and that certain types hold more predictive power than others: Top executives are better stock timers than junior ones, for example.

For five years, InsiderScore.com has used a proprietary algorithm to judge the amount and quality of insider buys. And recently, its scores are the highest it has ever published. The company estimates that today’s buying tops the levels that followed the crash of 1987 and comes close to those that accompanied the bear market recovery of 1975.

However, that doesn't mean you should just blindly mimic insiders. They can and do make bad calls. For example, buying levels jumped following Bear Stearns’ collapse in March. Since then, stock prices have fallen by a third. But heavy insider buying is at least reason to take a closer look at a stock. I recently screened for companies whose bosses have grabbed shares of late. I favored cases where multiple insiders have bought the same stock, where plenty of money has been spent and where key managers have been involved.

Glassmaker Corning (GLW) has forfeited nearly two-thirds of its stock value in the past year. Not coincidentally, that’s about equal to the percentage decline industry watchers report for sales of LCD panels for televisions and computer monitors. Displays have provided the bulk of Corning’s growth in recent years. A string of insiders have bought big in recent weeks, including Corning’s chairman/chief executive and its chief financial officer. Next year’s earnings are expected to plunge 40%, but shares go for just nine times the 2009 forecast and the company has more cash than debt. It even pays a dinky dividend, which with the stock price this low, works out to a 2.3% yield.

Dow Chemical (DOW) has attracted eight insider buys since summer, including ones by its chief executive, financial and technology officers. The stock is down more than 60% for the year. It plunged 19% on Monday alone after a proposed joint venture with Kuwait’s state oil company collapsed. That deal would have provided Dow with $7 billion in cash, which it could surely use considering it agreed this past summer to pay a lavish premium for specialty chemical maker Rohm & Haas (ROH). Dow must now either borrow a massive sum to complete the purchase (credit agencies have already lowered the company’s debt rating on that assumption) or pay a $750 million break-up fee. Bottom line: The stock at its current price carries a dividend yield of nearly 9%, but payments, already an ambitious 85% of next year’s profit forecast, seem anything but safe. I’d pass for now.

Coach (COH) should be getting killed. It makes $300 handbags — what could be less necessary in a wheezing economy? But shares have only lost one-third year to date, about seven percentage points less than the broad market. The company still has industry-leading margins and returns on equity. It’s still growing sales and profits. And the stock now carries something it hasn’t had since its 2000 debut — a bargain price. Shares fetch nine times forecast 2008 earnings. But the company pays no dividend. Pity: It could easily afford a 5% yield. Without quarterly cash payments, luxury goods stocks right now are looking about as necessary as those pricey bags. Best of luck just the same to the chief executive and other managers who’ve been buying since August.

Finally, Hormel (HRL) couldn’t be trendier right now. What’s more “in” when money’s tight than canned chili and corned beef hash? Sales and profits are growing nicely. Shares have fared much better than the broad market of late. As is the case right now with many stocks traditionally thought of as defensive, Hormel’s valuation — 14 times earnings — isn’t defensively low. But it isn’t unreasonable, either, especially considering the company’s negligible debt load. Shares yield a not-quite-meaty 2.5%, but Hormel tends to bump up its dividend each year or so. And payments are as secure as they come; Hormel has made good on them for more than 300 straight quarters.

Have a look if you like at the full list of screen survivors below.