8 Stocks With Earnings Momentum

Fluor (FLR) boasts huge sales but skimpy margins. Both mislead. As the world's No. 2 builder (behind privately owned Bechtel) of complex structures like oil refineries, power plants and drug factories, Fluor buys and resells mountains of materials at close to cost on behalf of customers. All count as sales, and so operating profit totals around four cents on each sales dollar, less than half the median for S&P 500 companies.

More telling, though, is Fluor's profit as a percentage of the capital invested to create it. A builder of plants needs few plants of its own and collects rich fees for its expertise. Fluor thus earns a return on invested capital of nearly 30%, about triple the S&P 500 median. Its stock has soared fivefold in value since its late-2000 debut. The bulk of the gain has come since 2002, as soaring oil, gas and coal prices have led to a scramble to find, secure, transport, process and burn more of the stuff.

Energy's push on the stock works both ways. Since mid-July oil's price has fallen but just over a fifth. So has Fluor's stock price. The company's profit prospects have only sweetened, though, and so its shares now seem worth a look.

Second-quarter profit for Fluor, reported Aug. 11, more than doubled on demand for oil and gas projects, and on the sale of a wind-farm stake. Absent the sale, profit rose by two-thirds. Operating margin improved by a percentage point from a year earlier, to 5.4%. New project awards were worth a record $6.9 billion. (The wind-farm buyer is spending $1.8 billion on new work.) Backlog swelled 28% from a year ago, to $33 billion, another company record.

Management for the second time this year boosted its profit forecast. It expects to clear $3.65 to $3.80 a share this year, adjusted for a mid-July stock split. That's up from earlier guidance of $3.30 to $3.45. Wall Street doesn't quite seem convinced. Its consensus stands at $3.53, albeit up from $3.29 just a month ago.

The odds say to bet on Fluor. It has beaten Wall Street forecasts in each of its past three quarters, twice by double-digit percentages. Studies have long shown that one such upside surprise is more likely than not to be followed by another. It is also likely to be followed by strong stock returns. The same holds for increases to earnings guidance. Fluor recently turned up on my Earnings Momentum stock screen, which looks for both of these clues. Seven other companies made the cut, too. See them all on the next page. Create a fresh list of earnings outperformers anytime using the full list of search criteria and SmartMoney's stock screener.

At 21 times forecast 2008 earnings, Fluor's stock price can't be called overly modest. But it seems in keeping with the company's growth rate. After this year's stellar increase, expected to total 57%, earnings next year are seen climbing a further 19%. Fluor's competence in oil, gas, coal and nuclear power suggests it will profit nicely in tomorrow's green economy and today's brownish-grey one. The company's net cash stockpile of $2 billion, some 15% of its outstanding stock value, makes for some enviable choices. One is a single, big dividend. Another is a recurring yield — something more than the stock's paltry 0.7%. A third is stock repurchases. A fourth is investment into growth projects or acquisitions. Normally shareholders would clamor for money in their pockets. Fluor's returns on capital are so meaty it might be trusted to put the money to work wisely. Better to do so soon, though, or else hand it off.