Monday November 23, 2009 5:42 AM ET
SmartMoney
Published April 28, 2008  |  A A A
Tradecraft by Jonathan Hoenig (Author Archive)

Gap's Stock Comes Back in Fashion

UNLIKE THE SMARTLY dressed (and smart) retail analyst Dana Telsey, I've never been particularly fashionable. I was late to jean jackets in the 1980s and black jeans in the 1990s, and will most certainly be late to whatever style is popular today. Thankfully, a Brooks Brothers suit and tie will never go out of style.

So while I haven't been into a Gap (GPS) store in years, I'm confident enough in its shares to have taken a position using call options to bet on upside potential above $22.50. This seemingly forgotten growth stock, which traded as high as $50 a share back in 2000, has been lapped this decade amid expansion blunders and a lack of distinctive style.

Yet in recent weeks there's plenty of objective evidence that the sector has a bid. Wal-Mart Stores' (WMT) run has been fairly well publicized, less so the more fashion-oriented retailers such as Urban Outfitters (URBN), Aeropostale (ARO) and J. Crew Group (JCG). Whether it's the forthcoming stimulus checks or a harbinger of a stronger economy ahead, this is a move that seems to have legs.

URBN, JCG, ARO, GPS and S&P 500 index over past year
Last year, as Countrywide Financial (CFC) was plummeting, Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo cashed out of $121 million worth of stock, in addition to earning more than $10 million in compensation. Glenn Tilton, chairman and CEO of UAL (UAUA), parent company of United Airlines, was paid $1.4 million even as the stock fell by 20%. He's poised to make another $11.9 million if the company undergoes a change of control (read: merger), as it will likely soon announce. Charles R. Schwab, CEO of the Charles Schwab (SCHW) discount brokerage, received $48 million from the sale of 3.3 million company shares.

Personally, I couldn't care less. Businesses, even failing ones like Countrywide and United Air, are privately owned. Investing in them is voluntary. If shareholders are upset with a CEO's pay, either sell the stock or, as Carl Icahn likes to do, accumulate enough shares to influence the board. Even a shareholder with a small stake can put up a proposal for a vote.

Still, it doesn't stop the AFL-CIO from posting an extensive "PayWatch 2008" section of its web site, claiming that "chief executive officers of the firms most responsible for causing the [credit] crisis collected hundreds of millions of dollars in pay last year. This highlights the need for further reform to protect companies and their investors."

Companies are owned by shareholders, not regulatory bureaucracies or union pressure groups. It's not the government's responsibility — or right — to dictate what a company pays its CEO.

When a stock price is high, we tend to overdramatize every price adjustment simply because of the absolute numbers involved are so large. At a recent $540 a share, for example, Google (GOOG) can easily move $25 in a day, which accounts for less than a 5% swing.

Movement in lower priced stocks, perhaps because we see them as lottery tickets anyway, tends to be discounted, even when the percentage change is equally dramatic. For example, Ford Motor's (F) 90-cent drop on Friday to $7.50 a share accounted for a 10% decline, or roughly $1.6 billion in lost market cap. Monday morning's 70-cent rebound back above $8 added nearly 10%. Investors who traffic in low-priced stocks should be adept at thinking in percentages rather than absolute numbers, a task made much easier by online tools such as the Percentage Change Calculator. When a stock sinks under $10, a few nickels either way can really affect your bottom line.

"It's that hubris — that belief in the market, that Ayn Rand 'Fountainhead' nonsense that became our mantra in our country. It's embarrassing!"
— CNBC's Jim Cramer in an interview with The Guardian.

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC.


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User Comments
Posted by: whitesites
Jonathan, Why not just invest in brooks brothers if that is what you wear.
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Related Quotes

GPS 21.95 Up 0.09 0.41%
WMT 54.28 Down -0.26 -0.48%
URBN 32.18 Down -0.08 -0.25%
ARO 31.91 Up 0.05 0.16%

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