Black Friday's Big Question

GOOD MORNING. Stocks in Asia closed lower; U.S. futures are pointed lower.

Black Friday is here. But will it deliver? That is the question on Wall Street’s mind as shoppers head to the mall today. Traffic is expected to outdo last year, according to a survey conducted by BIGresearch for the National Retail Federation. Up to 134 million people will shop this Friday, Saturday and Sunday, up from 128 million in 2008. But of the 134 million, 77 million said they were waiting to see what retailers were planning before heading out the door, according to the survey.

Discount and department stores will be the biggest attractions for consumers this weekend, with more than 60% of respondents intending to visit their favorite “big box store”, according to the survey. More than 40% planned to visit an electronics store. Analysts have particularly high expectations for luxury retailers, like Coach (COH), Saks (SKS), and Tiffany (TIF) who are thought to have effectively managed inventory. It certainly didn’t hurt that Tiffany reported better than expected earnings and increased its guidance just ahead of the holiday weekend.

But we will have to wait for Sunday before the real numbers start rolling in. That’s when the NRF will release the results of its Black Friday weekend survey, including information on what time people started shopping, where they shopped, how much they spent, what they purchased, and how many people are expected to shop on Cyber Monday. The results of Black Friday and this weekend will start to leak out on Monday on a company by company basis. Perhaps the most telling data will arrive on Thursday when companies report their November same store sales.

Although November traffic ahead of this weekend was reported to be light, the commerce department said last week that consumer spending increased by 0.7% in October, which was more than expected. The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased slightly to 67.4, up from 66.0 in early November, but remained below October's 70.6 reading.

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