Saturday July 11, 2009 5:55 PM ET
SmartMoney
Published June 10, 2008  |  A A A
Stocks by Dan Burrows (Author Archive)

New iPhone Won't Derail BlackBerry

THE SECOND COMING of the iPhone didn't disappoint. As expected, Apple's (AAPL) latest and greatest gadget sports a 3G connection for faster web browsing, GPS and is slightly thinner at the edges, among other goodies.

Also as expected, the iPhone 3G has enterprise support, meaning corporate users can employ Microsoft's (MSFT) Microsoft Exchange ActiveSync to get push email, calendar and contacts. It also has secure access to corporate networks thanks to software from Cisco Systems (CSCO) and IT departments can remotely wipe it clean should it go missing in the wild.

At first glance all those features might sound uncomfortably close to what Research in Motion's (RIMM) BlackBerrys do. Perhaps of more concern is that Steve Jobs & Co. slashed the price on the iPhone 3G. Consumers and corporate users can now pick one up for as little as $200.

That's BlackBerry territory, too.

We have little doubt that Apple will succeed in making the iPhone a mass-market gadget that also picks up some corporate users, but RIM needn't fret. The company still has plenty of critical advantages in the enterprise business and is playing smart defense with sexy phones that should continue to grab consumers and retain loyal fanboys.

Most important, the smartphone market's growing so rapidly that there's plenty of pie for both of them.

As buzz-worthy as the iPhone 3G is, it's no BlackBerry, and it doesn't try to be. It's probably best in class in a number of areas, including its operating system, media capabilities and touchscreen technology.

Still, the phenomenal success of RIM's BlackBerry Pearl and Curve models show that plenty of consumers and business users still want a real keyboard. And when it comes to push email BlackBerry Enterprise Server is still superior to Microsoft Exchange. (During Monday's presentation even Apple executive Philip Schiller referred to Microsoft's ActiveSync as "ActiveStink.") And let's not forget how entrenched RIM is in the enterprise world.

Global Smartphone Year Over Year Growth in Q1 2008
Company
Q1 2008
Unit Sales
Q1 2007
Unit Sales
Year Over Year Growth (%)
Nokia
14,588,600
11,645,734
25.30
Research In Motion
4,311,814
2,080,000
107.30
Apple
1,725,300
0
NA
Sharp
1,323800
1,741,109
-24.00
Fujitsu
1,317,500
1,247,200
5.60
Others
8,982,890
8,227,388
9.20
Total
32,249,904
24,941,431
29.30
NA= Not Applicable
Source: Gartner

Meanwhile, it's not as if RIM has been standing still waiting for Apple to steal its base. The BlackBerry Bold, supposedly launching next month, isn't just an iPhonish handset with a "qwerty" keyboard. It should be a 3G beast with a high-resolution display, GPS, WiFi and lots of other cool features.

Then there's the BlackBerry Thunder, a touchscreen copycat of the iPhone rumored to be available sometime in the third quarter. A touchscreen on a BlackBerry is a gamble but it seems one well worth taking.

So although Apple's likely to poach some civilian CrackBerry addicts and make some inroads into enterprise, RIM is well positioned and the market's got plenty of room for this competition.

Worldwide smartphone sales grew nearly 30% in the seasonally slow first quarter to more than 32 million units, according to market researcher Gartner. In North America, sales more than doubled. RIM itself more than doubled its unit sales and grew its market share to 13% from 8% a year ago. The iPhone came from nowhere to claim 5% of the global market in the first quarter.

Not only is RIM more than holding its own, it turns out that this rivalry is not a zero-sum game between BlackBerry and iPhone. Indeed, they're both taking share from everyone else, especially Nokia (NOK). Indeed, American Technology Research analyst Mark McKechnie downgraded shares of Nokia to Neutral from Buy Monday over concern that the RIM and Apple onslaught of 3G handsets could get ugly for the world's biggest cellphone maker.

We'll take it as pretty much a foregone conclusion that the faster, cheaper iPhone 3G will be a huge success, but we doubt it will make RIM a punchline. If anything, the joke will be on Nokia.

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User Comments
Posted by: WJMURRAY

Amid all the excitement about wonders of the Iphone and Thunderberry please pray tell who is going to make cell phones for those of us who do not want to watch movies and surf the Internet on a three inch screen.

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AAPL 138.52 Up 2.16 1.58%
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MSFT 22.39 Down -0.05 -0.22%
NOK 14.18 Down -0.10 -0.70%

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