Tuesday November 24, 2009 12:31 AM ET
SmartMoney
Published June 13, 2008  |  A A A
Tradecraft by Jonathan Hoenig (Author Archive)

No Values to Be Found in Airlines, Financials

IF YOU'VE BEEN following the action in recent days you've probably noticed the race to the bottom being run between the financials and the airline stocks. Judging from the price action of various securities, it would appear to be only a matter of time before one of these industries all but collapses. The downturn has gone from ugly to downright obscene.

And virtually no member of either sector has been spared. In the financials, it's not just the likes of Lehman Brothers (LEH) that's been crushed; it's seemingly every bank and big-cap financial you can find. AIG (AIG) is at its lowest point in over a decade, Washington Mutual (WM) at the lowest point in 16 years, and National City (NCC) trading at levels not seen since 1984. These are historic moves from which many of these companies will take years to recover, if they ever do.

The airlines' performance has been equally pitiful, with the Amex Airline Index down nearly 50% year to date. United Airlines parent UAL (UAUA), Delta Air Lines (DAL), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Northwest Airlines (NWA) and the rest of the index components are trading either at or near all-time lows.

Looking for value amid the rubble? Consider that for JetBlue to regain the $31 price it traded at back in 2003, the stock will have to climb 726%. For IndyMac (IMB) to regain the $50.53 it traded at back in 2006, the stock will need to climb 3,098%. How's that for long-term investing?

And although dire news regarding both industries will likely continue to dominate headlines, it's worth noting that their weakness showed up much earlier in their stock charts than on the business pages. Trouble in the financial sector began to surface even before I pointed it out last summer. And after treading water for most of the past four years, the airline sector began to deteriorate in early 2007, as oil prices rose, and has consistently trended down for the better part of a year.

Two-year performance of Amex Airline Index (XAL)
Source: BigCharts.com
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