Sunday November 22, 2009 5:44 AM ET
SmartMoney
Published May 2, 2008  |  A A A
Tradecraft by Jonathan Hoenig (Author Archive)

Precious-Metals Price Action Loses Luster

THIS WEEK I'VE been scratching my head, looking at price action that I haven't seen in a long time. Gold stocks are at multimonth, and in many cases multiyear, lows. Same goes for silver.

It got me thinking about how much the attitude toward precious-metals investing has changed. When I first began writing about gold back in 2001, exchange-traded funds like StreetTracks Gold (GLD) and PowerShares DB Precious Metals (DBP) hadn't even been invented yet. Investors in gold, and commodities in general, were chided as fringe survivalist types clinging to Krugerrands in anticipation of a nuclear meltdown.

Year-to-date: Kincross Gold (KGC), Goldcorp (GG), Silver Standard (SSRI), Newmont Mining (NEM)

Stoked by a multiyear bull market, that attitude has now completely reversed. Millions of investors have bought gold, gold stocks or precious-metals ETFs. Books like "Crash Proof," which I heartedly endorsed, and "The Coming Economic Collapse" have sold briskly, and commodities conferences with Jim Rogers and other gurus have attracted thousands of attendees.

Hardly fringe, gold has now become downright mainstream. And while surely gold will have value over the long term, this one-time leader's price action in the here and now is anything but encouraging.

"I do want a gas tax holiday, but to pay for it by putting a windfall profits tax on the oil companies...the oil companies have made out like bandits...and there is no basis for them to have these huge profits. They're not inventing anything new."

— Sen. Hillary Clinton (D., N.Y.), in a Fox News interview with Bill O'Reilly

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Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC.


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User Comments
Posted by: Panskeptic
Gold has been pronounced dead so many times that when it finally does roll over we'll be late recognizing it. But I don't think this time is it.

As far as Big Oil is concerned, instead of making the money come out of corporate coffers, let's make the top three executives at each company pay. There's no justification for their compensation - nobody's that smart. Nobody contributes that much added value.

Under the two Bush terms, there's been massive measurable money flows out of the middle class towards the top 1% of the population. It's not socialism to try to reverse that, it's trying to fix a national disgrace.

The Republicans began 150 years ago by standing up for racial justice, but no more. They invented the National Park system, now they want to extract everything everywhere. The one thing they have never wavered on is helping rich white bastards hold on to every last cent. Jesus preached differently, but that's the Repubs' unchanging core belief.
Posted by: FreedomFirst
Stay the course with gold...don't panick! It will go up and up.
Posted by: FreedomFirst
Let's just ignore what the candidates have to say now. Just look back and listen to what they said and did before they became candidates. I mean they are all scary. Once we have 2 candidates we just sit back and evaluate all the dirt they dig up on each other. In McCain's case we need to pay attention to the VP also...asumimg she(he) will be allowed to speak.
Posted by: hcarba
GOLD went through a correction cause it shot up too fast nearing $1000 dlls an ounce. Too many people piling into due to the financial housing sector disaster. This happened for a good short term reason. Gold had to correct. The Fed came to the rescue of the financial sector. However, I wouldn't bet against gold for long. It is going up again to record levels very soon. There are long-term fundamental reasons that are indicating that it will inch it's way back up to record levels.
Posted by: dileepkatta
Jonathan, thank you. I bought gold on 500 on your advice. I find your analysis refreshingly lucid and devoid of hype and the emotion-driven drivel of most of the TV self-styled gurus.
As for the Clinton quote, Im more worried about her dumb 'foreclosure bailout' idea than the gas tax. Forcing me to pay for the greed/stupidity of those homeowners is outrageous. I dont even understand why these people who foreclose are portrayed as victims by the media. They chose to break a contract when it was inconvenient for them. And somehow the banks are the villains?
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GLD 112.94 Up 0.64 0.57%
DBP 40.00 Up 0.14 0.35%
KGC 19.14 Down -0.32 -1.64%
GG 43.64 Down -0.37 -0.84%

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