Stock Picks: AMZN Up; LVS Down

Amazon.com (AMZN) shares touched a new high for the year on Monday as holiday cheer lifted investors’ spirits. Prospects for the online retailer’s Cyber Monday also looked good, after Amazon said the Kindle, its electronic book reader, registered its best yet monthly sales in November.

It didn’t hurt that competitors indicated to their customers that they had sold out of similar devices ahead of the shopping season. Barnes & Noble (BKS) said on Sunday that it would begin shipping the $259 wireless Nook reader and seek to fill its pre-orders in time for the holidays, but will delay in-store sales until Dec. 7.

The bottom line: Considering that per capita consumer spending dipped almost 8% over Thanksgiving weekend, any retailer showing early success this holiday season will be looked upon favorably.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) shares were more than 2% lower after a disappointing investor response to public trading of Sands China, its Macau casino IPO.

Sands China sold at the low end of its price range. It moved 1.87 billion shares last week, raising about $2.5 billion--much of which will be used to pay down debt. Shares dropped 10% in their first day of trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on November 30, while the broader markets were largely higher.

Analysts say the IPO got the cold shoulder in part because it was overvalued. There is also a supply issue, with Wynn Resorts (WYNN) having launched Wynn Macau in September and raising $1.8 billion.

But some on Wall Street are still optimistic. “We continue to be very positive on LVS over the next 9-15 months believing it has significant growth from new properties, potential for a rebound in Las Vegas convention business in 2011-2012, vastly improved balance sheet and liquidity as well as moderate valuation,” wrote BMO Capital Markets analysts.

There are a handful of upcoming catalysts for the stock. These include published November Macau market results, fourth-quarter earnings, and the opening of Marina Bay Singapore in the first quarter of 2010. Sterne Agee’s David Bain says the latest data suggest the Macau market is up 50% month to date vs. last year and that fourth-quarter results are trending above consensus.

The bottom line: “Qualified institutional buyers that bought the deal obviously believe it will trade higher day one of trading, which is slated for November 30, in our view,” wrote Bain, last week. Of course, those investors are likely disappointed with the day-one performance.