Tuesday November 24, 2009 4:52 PM ET
SmartMoney
Published May 5, 2008  |  A A A
Tradecraft by Jonathan Hoenig (Author Archive)

The Market Is Beyond Control. Your Trades Aren't

WITH A PHONE CALL, there are a dozen or so restaurants that will deliver anything from steaks to sushi directly to my apartment, usually within an hour or less. I can get fresh coffee or doughnuts from the corner store almost any time of the day or night. With the Internet, there isn't a newspaper, TV show or movie that isn't instantly accessible. Indeed, in today's modern world, virtually everything is available on demand.

Unfortunately, the market isn't nearly as accommodating.

The market moves on its own schedule and it has all the time in the world. Promising stocks with solid fundamentals will lie listless for years. Strong bull markets will consolidate for months before racing on to new highs. Stocks will rally and churn with no discernable trend for a decade — before suddenly tripling within a year.

And like dealing with any another human being, our own impact is limited. You can pull and prod, but at the end of the day the market, just like your spouse, employee or parent, is going to end up doing whatever the hell it wants to.

Rather than try to control the market, consider a few ideas for controlling yourself:

Don't force a market. You buy XYZ at $50 and it falls to $45. Instead of taking the hint that perhaps the market isn't ready to make the move you'd envisioned, you buy more, as if somehow an additional 100 shares can nudge the market on to loftier levels. It's wishful thinking that exposes you to more risk, often at exactly the wrong time.

Don't force a decision. Most people don't buy stocks they like, but merely the least objectionable of all the ones they've looked at. So when Ma and Pa Kettle decide they want to be more aggressive with their money, they inevitably end up, almost arbitrarily, buying something that very same day. Wait for the right moment, when the investment ideas you feel strongest about are at a good entry point.

Don't make an all-or-none bet. Think of the difference in the current market environment compared to the one we faced last summer, when the credit crisis was just beginning. Or last fall, when tech stocks like Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) were still clear leaders. Or even last quarter, when gold, now $860 per ounce, was kissing $1,000. Every day the market gives us a bit more information, so plan on allocating assets over months, not minutes. Use staggered stop-loss orders to get out of the weak trades while maintaining some exposure in case things turn around.

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User Comments
Posted by: davidmerzig
What a concept....buy low, sell high, and dollar cost average?? Wouldn't it be just as smart to by a Total Market Fund in periodic amounts over time and stop running in the hamster cage?
Posted by: aslote
More clever title would have been,
'The Market is Beyond Control. Your T(i)rades Aren't.'
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