Tuesday November 24, 2009 8:15 AM ET
SmartMoney
Published June 2, 2008  |  A A A
Tradecraft by Jonathan Hoenig (Author Archive)

Three Common Trading Pitfalls to Avoid

(Page all of 2)

THERE'S A NAIVE belief that the more you trade the more you make. Truly successful investors, so the misguided thinking goes, are frequent traders who constantly jump in and out of stocks, gold or just about anything else.

It's a fantasy born from the trading-floor imagery that, since organized markets began, has been used to portray the investment world. The stock footage of type-A personalities screaming, yelling and waving their arms in a pit or at a trading post aren't traders but rather market makers whose profits are made not by predicting the direction of a market, but simply by facilitating trades across the spread. Nowadays, computerized black-box algorithms have virtually eliminated that element of the game.

Real profits aren't made by trading in and out of a stock, but by having the foresight to take a position ahead of the herd and riding it the duration of a significant move in valuation. To that end, there's nothing particularly beneficial about gaming a stock for a 5% pop, since you need to have a big chunk of capital at risk for such a blip to have any appreciable effect on the bottom line. The big money is made on the big moves.

Think of trading as being akin to the surgeon making incision with a scalpel: It's necessary to complete the task, but should be done as prudently and efficiently as possible.

Of all the ways to classify investments — by market cap, dividend yield or sector — the least helpful is to classify certain stocks as "risky" and others as "safe." Trade for even just a few years and you'll quickly see how time and time again the market shatters those stereotypes. Consider names like Pfizer (PFE) or AIG (AIG), two "conservative" large-cap stocks in "defensive" industries. Both are resting uncomfortably lower than where they were 10 years ago.
Pfizer (PFE), AIG (AIG) — 10-year chart

In my book, stocks aren't safe or risky, but strong or weak. And although there's no foolproof approach, the better odds always rest in focusing on the comparatively better performers.

Yet ironically, many people gravitate toward stocks that have experienced significant losses with the belief that, because they've fallen sharply, they are somehow less risky than they were 20% higher. Indeed, how many people, even accomplished investors like Bill Miller, bought busted blue-chip Citigroup (C) at $45, $35 or $30, believing they were snagging a value. Of course, 10 years from now they might be proven correct, but in the here and now, tomorrow's market environment usually isn't too different from today's.

I don't judge a stock by its sector, size or reputation, only by its price action and performance in the marketplace. And although it's human nature to gravitate to fallen angels in hopes of snagging a value, it's precisely those situations that have a tendency to go from bad to worse.

The dirty little secret the newsletter and pundit community don't want you to know is that even professional investors don't always pick winners. What matters isn't that every stock is a winner, but that the profits from the winners are, on average, larger than the losses from the losers.

So out of 10 different investment ideas, it's quite possible that only two or three of them will actually perform as expected. But if you're able to limit the worst losses to, say, 15% while letting the winners grow significantly larger, then you'll make money even when the majority of your picks don't work out. A scorecard usually ends up with a handful of losses, a handful of scratches and a small cadre of names that do exceptionally well.

So yes, I'll have plenty of picks like Gap (GPS) that fall or go nowhere fast. What saves me is the discipline that controls the losses and allows the occasional winner to more than make up the difference.

Also See:

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC. At the time of writing, Hoenig's fund held positions in some of the securities mentioned.


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