Thursday March 18, 2010 11:30 PM ET
SmartMoney
Published September 22, 2008  |  A A A
Tradecraft by Jonathan Hoenig (Author Archive)

Ultimate Cost of Bailout Could Be Capitalism

"I know of nobody who is arguing over the amount of money or even that the secretary ought to have the authority to purchase these toxic instruments, these bad debts," said Sen. Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.), chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.

Well, Senator, had you or Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson truly bothered to ask around, you'd surely have found more than a few honest, taxpaying citizens who are, like me, completely outraged over the size, scope and nature of the unprecedented plan to push this country further toward total socialist rule.

Wealth creation isn't simply the act of signing a check or printing a dollar bill. Creating wealth -- the type of wealth that yields new advancements and jobs, and enhances human life -- is a result of reason, hard work and long-range planning. Wealth isn't born of a governmental decree or redistribution of wealth. Yet that's exactly the path down which Dodd, Paulson, President Bush and the rest of the federal government continue to push.

First the feds nationalized mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). Then it was AIG (AIG), the nation's largest insurance company. (Curiously, Lehman Brothers, the No. 4 investment bank, was left to file bankruptcy.) Now the government is seeking to start a $400 billion pool to insure money market assets, which investors had previously understood not to be insured.

It doesn't end there. Uncle Sam further plans a $700 billion fund to buy, well, whatever types of assets it wants. Originally envisioned as a repository for soured mortgage bets, as late as Sunday night, the Treasury Department reportedly revised plans to include what it terms "troubled assets." Those could be student loans, credit-card debt, non-U.S. assets, or anything else that happens to strike Paulson's fancy. You couldn't design a more inherently corrupt and arbitrary policy if you tried.

As it now stands, the plan would spend as much as the annual budgets of the Departments of Education, Defense and Health and Human Services combined. Of course, that can and surely will change, quite possibly by the time you get done reading this.

Already being tacked on are the politically populist measures to keep "struggling homeowners" from losing their houses and limit executive compensation. At all firms or just those participating in the scheme? Nobody knows. Nobody knows anything at all. The rules by which honest businessmen attempt to function are now changing on literally an hour-by-hour basis.

On Friday the government made it illegal to sell short 899 financial stocks, a bizarrely arbitrary list that included Silver State Bancorp (SSBX), an already failed bank recently closed by the FDIC, but not General Electric (GE), American Express (AXP) , M&T Bank (MTB) or CIT Group (CIT). (The SEC amended the list over the weekend to include GE, AmEx and several other stocks.) The short-selling ban is only in effect until Oct. 2. After that who knows? What about the options traders who must sell short in order to be able to effectively make markets? What about the thousands of investors big and small who sell short to hedge their stock exposure? What about the billions of dollars invested into short-selling products like ProShares UltraShort Financials (SKF)? Who knows? 

When laws are made without the benefit of a Constitutional vetting or vote, confusion reigns. Not even the pros know what the heck is going on, which is exactly why the markets are now regularly swinging 400 points a day with little regard to economic fundamentals. When markets are dictated by bureaucrats, earnings and analysis are no longer relevant.

Indeed, instead of property rights and the rule of law, the country is now being governed by spur-of-the-moment plans devoid of any long-range thinking. Just listen to our own president: "Look, I'm sure there are some of my friends out there saying, 'I thought this guy was a market guy. What happened to him?'" Bush told a Washington press conference. "Well, my first instinct wasn't to lay out a huge government plan. My first instinct was to let the market work until I realized, upon being briefed by the experts, of how significant this problem became."

The message is that we believe in free markets until times get tough, at which point capitalism goes out the window and is replaced by Venezuelan-style nationalization and rule-by-decree.

And make no mistake, that's exactly what we are witnessing. Without so much as a single vote, the supposedly fiscally conservative Bush administration has achieved an economic coup d'etat, completely abandoning the free-market principles on which this country was built. In its place is crony capitalism in which individual property rights and the proper role of government -- as referee, not starring actor -- has disappeared altogether. The icing on the cake: The trillion-dollar price tag that accompanies Paulson's plan is being paid for by lifting the ceiling on the federal debt to $11.3 trillion, having already been raised earlier this year.

Just pick up a newspaper from the last few days and you'll quickly see that Bernanke, Paulson, Bush, Dodd, Rep. Barney Frank (D., Mass.) and the rest are flying by the seat of their pants, ruling on an ad-hoc basis and, quite obviously, making up directives as they go along.

It's impossible to plan long-range when the country's leaders can't see past the next edition of the Washington Post. As I've been pointing out for weeks now, traditional economic analysis simply does not work. Big Brother is now calling the shots.

What to own at a time like this? I have increased my holdings of Japanese yen, including purchases of the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY), physical gold and cash. As distraught as I am to admit it, there's no question that the draconian and abusive maneuvers of the past few weeks puts us ever further down a very bleak and dangerous path.

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC.


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User Comments
Posted by: Tuner38
It is not a matter of who is elected , it is the problem with letting government get out of hand and operate outside its nature. The policies we are seeing are not working because distorting the market is what government does for political gain. A government run economy will either inflate or collapse into depression. See the following: http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/76451
Posted by: darell
Good News for tcrane84
There is a Third party candidate. His name is Bob Barr. It's the same party that Ron Paul came from. If some of those 45% (which is actually higher) of 'undecideds would vote for Barr for president our Country would make a positive change.
http://www.lp.org/
Posted by: JSwadesh
tcrane84 asks, 'Why can't they reduce the budget 1 trillion, by cutting back on each government dept.10 percent.'

TCrane, why don't you try it? There are budget simulators that allow you to try out your ideas. Here's one: http://www.nathannewman.org/nbs/

Very simply, it's not realistic. It would mean throwing wounded veterans into the street and leaving criminals free. It would mean letting more bridges collapse and having American research become Third World.

The Republicans promised that if they were granted power, they would do something very much like what you suggest. They had absolute power for over four years, and a great deal of power for much of the last 30. And yet they didn't do it. The reason was that they know a secret that most Americans don't: (except for defense) we have the smallest government and the lowest taxes of any industrialized nation.

There are ways to cut the deficit without raising taxes, but they either mean endi...(Read more of this comment)
Posted by: tcrane84
why does the tax payer need to pay. Why can't they reduce the budget 1 trillion,
by cutting back on each government dept.10 percent.
We need a third party canaidate
Posted by: JSwadesh
SL Christian manages to be more than 100% wrong.

The failure occurred at many levels, from borrowers who misstated their incomes to originators who tricked borrowers into taking on mortgages they couldn't afford to the Federal Reserve, which made money too cheap and failed to do its job in regulating loan quality.

But the shadow banks, aka 'Wall Street,' were deeply culpable. They bought mortgages that they should have known were improperly documented. They used excessive leverage to create liabilities they could not back up and developed securities that were all-but-certain to fail.

The 'Emergency Economic Stabilization Act' was largely aimed at helping those shadow banks. It did little for borrowers who had been cheated by unscrupulous originators or for cities and towns which are shouldering the costs of maintaining or razing abandoned properties while facing declining tax revenues. But it did offer to take bad securities off the hands of the people wh...(Read more of this comment)
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