When Will the Dow Hit 10,000? Our Poll

It’s the kind of prediction that can get a Vegas bookie’s blood going: Name the date and time that the Dow will cross the 10,000 threshold. The answer, of course, is that it could come at any time. On Oct. 15, when the latest Consumer Price Index is announced — or not. On Oct. 23, when Fed chairman Ben Bernanke addresses the Federal Reserve in Boston – or not.

So on the heels of a record rally for the market in the third quarter -- and now some jitters too -- we decided to take a stab by canvassing the investing pros. We talked to more than three dozen, asked them to place their bets, and explain their reasoning.

Some took the task seriously (investment banker-turned-financial journalist Nomi Prims: Oct. 9, at the open, 9:30 a.m., explaining it would take that long for jobless numbers to sink in). Others were light-hearted, naming the impossible (when the Yankees win the World Series) or the inscrutable (Robert D. Arnott, chairman of Newport Beach, Calif.’s Research Affiliates: Inflation-adjusted, in year 2000 prices, we will re-cross the 10,000 mark on Valentine’s Day, 2018).

But with the predictions all over the map, we wanted to find a way to boil the answers down to one date and time. We averaged out all of the specific predictions — a process that involved converting the figures into Julian dates, if you must know. For those who supplied a day, but declined to pick the hour, we chose noon for them. For those who tied the market threshold to the outcome of a certain baseball team’s performance, we picked the day after the scheduled date for this year’s World Series Game 7. Technically, the math we did puts the Dow crossing the 10,000 threshold in late March, 2010.

But if we exclude one extreme outlier (with a prediction that puts the threshold in 2018), our poll says the DJIA will hit the five-figure line on Dec. 7 when the market opens.

Put it on your calendar.

Here’s a look at the individual prognostications:

President and chief executive officer, TD Ameritrade

Tomczyk helped negotiate the deal that led to the merger between TD Waterhouse and Ameritrade in 2005.

PREDICTION: “When the New York Yankees win the world series.”

Director of research, E*Trade Capital Management, LLC

Vanneman is the chief investment officer and portfolio manager at E*Trade’s Kobren Insight Management.

PREDICTION: Oct. 27, 2009
“That would be nice – it’s my wedding anniversary – thereby ensuring my wife and I enjoy a better meal this year than last!”

Chairman, Research Affiliates, LLC

Arnott heads a $31 billion investment management firm and has been an advocate of fundamentally-weighted indexes.

PREDICTION: Feb. 14, 2018, 11:20 a.m.
“Inflation-adjusted, in year 2000 prices, we will re-cross the 10,000 mark on Valentine’s Day, 2018.”