A Housing Recovery on the Horizon?

Should the economic stimulus plan get passed, metro housing prices could start stabilizing as early as the end of the year, according to a report from Moody's Economy.com, an independent economic research agency, released Monday.

An infusion of cash by the government to lower mortgage rates, curb foreclosures and create jobs could be the push the housing market needs to turn itself around, the firm's economists said in the report. In addition, they point out that the excesses of the housing bubble have already largely been corrected, with both inventories and prices at more realistic levels.

"Notwithstanding the intensifying economic gloom, the bottom of the housing downturn is within sight for the nation," the economists wrote. They noted that construction should hit a bottom by the end of the first half of this year, while new housing starts won't pick up until 2011.

But before that much-desired recovery can take place, the economists warn that there will be more pain. Home values in some of the nation's hardest-hit markets -- in particular Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona -- will continue to see prices plunge. In some of the worst-hit places, the peak-to-trough percentage losses will soar as high as 70%. Of the 381 metro areas that the firm looked into, it estimates that 100 will experience peak-to-trough declines of 20% or more. The bright spots on the map -- the 42 metro areas that are expected to see a decline of less than 1% -- will mainly be in the South.

Not so surprisingly, the hardest-hit places will be the slowest to bounce back. Florida, for example, is expected to be among the last to recover, says Celia Chen, co-author of the report and senior director of housing economics. That's because many of the state's major metro areas, including Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Naples and Orlando will see a greater than 60% decline in housing prices by year's end, she predicts. Other areas that will be slow to recover: the Central Valley area and Riverside in California; Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale region of Arizona; and the Las Vegas area in Nevada.

Job loss will also factor into the ability of some metro areas to improve. In ever-popular New York, for example, the continued job losses on Wall Street will continue to weigh on the market, says Chen. Only states that were somewhat immune to the housing boom at the beginning of the decade -- like Texas -- should expect a quicker recovery.