Is Time Running Out for Ultra-Low Mortgage Rates?

With rates hovering near record lows, home buyers are looking at a welcoming mortgage market these days. But will it last?

The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage loan was 5.15% as of Thursday, according to HSH Associates, which tracks the mortgage market. Rates are not as low as they were at one point this spring, when they sneaked below the 5% level, but they’re also not as high as they were one point in June. All in all, it could be hard for buyers to find a better time for rates than where they are now, says Keith Gumbinger, a vice president at HSH.

Despite taking a slight hit in August – existing home sales dropped last month, and new homes sales posted an insignificant 0.7% increase – the housing market has improved this year. For prospective home buyers who may be wondering if they need to move fast, here’s a look at some key issues on the mortgage front:

How long will rates stay this low?

HSH’s Gumbinger says interest rates will eventually creep higher – but when that will happen depends, in part, on how quickly the economy will recover, and whether that recovery comes with inflation. It also depends on how fast and to what degree the government removes itself from the real estate market. “It’s reasonable to expect that, with economic improvement and government-backed supports in the marketplace, interest rates will begin to firm somewhat,” Gumbinger says.

But at least for the next year, rates are expected to remain at the favorable levels, says Celia Chen, the senior director for housing economics at Moody’s Economy.com.

Will the government continue to stabilize mortgages?

The Federal Reserve announced this week that it will continue to buy — though at a slower pace — mortgage-backed securities through the first quarter next year in an effort to support the housing market. The ability of the private market to absorb those securities once the Fed is out of the picture will help determine the health of the sector, says Gumbinger.

The hope is that by March the economy will be strong enough – and job creation will begin to appear again – so that assistance from the Fed won’t be as necessary, says Chen, and underlying demand will help bolster the housing market.

How are home prices doing?

“This is a really good time to buy a home,” says Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight, an economic forecasting firm. Prices have dropped a lot – the S&P Case-Shiller home price index is still down about 30% from its peak in 2006 – and a first-time home buyer tax credit is making a home purchase even more affordable.

How tough is it to get a loan?

As most consumers know by now, low rates don’t mean getting a loan is easy. Lenders are still fairly cautious about extending credit. Underwriting standards are much tighter than they were a few years ago. In many cases, mortgage shoppers will need stellar credit, full financial documentation -- and a 20% down payment.