Tuesday February 9, 2010 10:30 PM ET
SmartMoney
Published October 17, 2008  |  A A A
SmartMoney Magazine by Brad Reagan and Elizabeth O'Brien

Home Prices: Now for the Good News

(Page 2 of 3)

Raleigh

North Carolina’s capital seems to have gotten a free pass where the housing slump is concerned. Prices have been buoyed by job growth in the Research Triangle, home to dozens of tech firms. Total sales in the first quarter of this year were the fifth highest on record. In some cities, suburbanites stung by gas prices are moving downtown in favor of walkable neighborhoods. But not in Raleigh. “People move here to get away from that type of living,” says local market analyst Stacey Anfindsen, only partly in jest. Although downtown Raleigh has added hundreds of condos and lofts, the real growth has come in suburbs like Cary, Morrisville and Apex, all on the western side of Raleigh, where home prices have risen steadily.

The subdivision of Preston, where prices are up 3.5 percent over last year, reigns as the area’s übersuburb. The northwest Cary neighborhood was bankrolled in the 1990s by Jim Goodnight, founder of software giant SAS, and supersizes the standard suburban amenities: Most lots are at least a quarter-acre, double the size of newer developments, and prices approach $500,000. Parents can choose from a roster of lauded private and public schools. John Minicucci, a technology analyst, moved his family to Preston in May after stints in New York and Vancouver, B.C., and chose the neighborhood in part because it is already built out; it doesn’t run the risk of being flooded with discounted properties because of overbuilding. “Since this area didn’t really experience the boom, it won’t be as susceptible to tanking,” he says. And he’s loving perks like abundant tee times. Like more than 60 percent of Preston residents, Minicucci belongs to the local country club, which hosts 54 holes of championship golf, two tennis facilities and three swimming pools.

Salt Lake City

Salt Lake City supports a diverse economy that could be called “Mormons and more.” The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints remains a large employer here, but the area has also seen steady job gains in health care, education and natural resources. That diversity has offset tough times for local home builders and information technology companies, keeping job growth in positive territory–and putting a safety net under home prices. “There’s a very pro-business, prodevelopment atmosphere,” says Jeff Thredgold, the economist for regional Zions Bank.

The city’s downtown is a testament to that. The 40-square-block area buzzes with construction projects, many of them related to City Creek Center, a $1.5 billion development that will include retail stores, offices and condos. The downtown area is home to several of Salt Lake City’s hottest residential neighborhoods, along with the Utah Jazz NBA team, outdoor concerts, theater and nightlife (though you may have to join a private club to be served alcohol). Of the seven zip codes in Salt Lake County that saw median prices rise in the second quarter of this year, three were downtown locales.

This fall, Kolaleh Rahimi, 40, moved with her daughter into a historic 1934 home in the Avenues, a popular neighborhood with an eclectic mix of Victorians, bungalows and ranch homes just north of downtown. Rahimi, a pharmacy manager, bikes five minutes downtown for shopping, music festivals and the Saturday farmers’ market. “Whatever you can do in downtown New York these days, you can do in downtown Salt Lake,” she says. But there’s nothing New Yorkish about home prices: Three-bedroom houses in the Avenues sell for around $360,000.

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User Comments
Posted by: khoo75
To imply that housing has reached close to a bottom is grossly premature. The late 90s through the early 00s brought about the most manic housing bull market in generations. Indeed, in this span house prices were outstripping inflation by 5, 15, and even 30% per year in some housing markets. Long term, however, economists find that houses on average keep pace with inflation or just barely beat it. So, after years of double digit returns on housing, it will take some time to 'regress to the mean.' Furthermore, after a bubble, markets typically over correct.

The formulas you cite suggest that there is approximately a 10% chance that housing prices will be lower two years from now than they are today. I wonder if those 'experts' would actually take such odds in a bet. If they gave me 5 to 1 on my money, I'd take the bet. Shoot, I'd seriously consider taking a 1 to 1 bet.
Posted by: sbuige
A few other points to consider, when looking at the 'numbers' that are put out there:
1. some are rolling averages. this is huge and can cause you to overlook an upturn. for instance, if sales were down .2 % three months in a row, then the average is .2% down. however, if sales were down 1%, then down 1% and then up 2.6 %, the total would be positive .6% divided by 3 = .2% up - you just missed an upturn.
2. when the reporting is on average sale, this is very misleading. of course the markets are weighted in the lower end now as investors scarf up the deals that will most easily cash flow. just because average sale dropped, that doesn't mean that the sale price in all price ranges came down. for instance, say last year you sold 20 homes at 10@100K, 5@200k, 5@500K. your average would be $225K. now lets say that this year you sell 20 but they're at 16@100k, 2@200k, 2@500k. average would be $150K - that doesn't mean all sellers have dropped, just that more sold in the lowe...(Read more of this comment)
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