Is Wall Street in a Hiring Mode?

Wall Streeters, get out your resumes.

After massive reductions in personnel last year and this, there is a glimmer of good job news in the financial sector. Between February and May of this year, layoffs appear to have bottomed out, and employment cuts from January through October have dropped 62% compared to the year-ago period, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an executive outplacement service.

What s more, the purse strings are clearly loosening. Bonuses at investment banks are expected to increase by an average of 40% from 2008 levels, according to Johnson Associates, a compensation consulting firm, and some firms have already started hiring. Last month, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, announced that the company was planning a hiring binge that could range between 200 and 400 new jobs. Citigroup, though it is reducing headcount in some areas, is bulking up in others, such as mortgage modification in the U.S. and capital market desks around the globe. We re looking to hire the best financial advisors for our private wealth management, says spokesman Alex Samuelson.

That s not to say the worst is over. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that November's unemployment rate fell to 10%, from 10.2% in October. Still, in what is being dubbed a jobless recovery, unemployment is not expected to peak until the third quarter of 2010, when it likely will reach 10.6%. Unemployment in the financial sector rose to 6.7% in November, up from 5.2% in November 2008.

Still, as long as the economy keeps inching forward, finance professionals should expect the industry to hire, says Richard Bove, a banking analyst at Rochdale Securities. Another long-term cycle of growth in the financial services industry is beginning, so hiring will continue, he says.

Here are seven indications that financial companies will start hiring.

Rising stock market

Since March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 60%. As more investors get back in the market, more stock brokers are needed to execute requests.

Performance is the primary indicator for people to come back to the market, says Peter Laurelli, a vice president at the Channel Capital Group, which offers investment financial services for hedge funds. In the world of hedge funds, it took two consecutive months of positive performance before net allocations turned positive, he says.

Hiring especially picked up in September among traders and salespeople when equities started accelerating upwards, says Eric Moskowitz, an executive director at Options Group, an executive search and consulting firm focused on the financial industry.

Rising commodities prices

Commodities continue to be on a winning streak as investors use them to hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar.

This week, the price of gold hit a record of $1,216.75 an ounce. And the price for a barrel of U.S. light sweet crude oil stands at $76.67, up from $33.07 in January 2009.

As prices and trading pick up, more commodity traders are needed. There is more focus on the commodities sector because of commodity prices, and there has been an increase in hiring in that sector, particularly in proprietary trading, says Skiddy von Stade, the CEO of OneWire.com, which works with more than 125 financial services companies.

On Wednesday, the CME Group reported that trading activity in November rose 5% from a year ago, marking the first month of year-over-year volume growth since the fall of 2008.

And, according to Goldman Sachs third-quarter earnings report, it earned $10.03 billion in net revenues from trading and principal investments, up from $2.4 billion for third quarter of 2008.

As more investors return to the market and trading activity increases, financial services firms will need more individuals who can execute trades and the backup administrative support that accompanies them, says Bove.

Recovering bank stock prices and increased earnings

Since March, Citigroup (C) stock has risen 323%; Morgan Stanley is up by 190%; Goldman Sachs, by 183%; and JP Morgan Chase, by 182%.

In addition, many are reporting increasing earnings. Goldman reported third-quarter earnings of $5.25 per common share up from $3.39 in the first quarter. And JP Morgan reported earnings of 82 cents per common share for the third quarter, up from nine cents a year earlier.

It s not a bad environment right now for banks to make money, says Bove. They re not going to make bad or risky loans and they can get money from the government very inexpensively. In periods where the outlook on the industry gets more positive and earnings are improving, banks will hire more people.

Inflow of assets

When hedge funds receive a significant amount of new money from investors, they tend to start hiring especially back-office personnel in administration, general investor relations and marketing, says Laurelli. In a good sign, in the past six months, cash flow at hedge funds has been positive. As of October, the total amount of new money added to hedge funds stood at $93.6 billion, says Laurelli. (Between January and October 2008, hedge funds experienced a net outflow of $140.98 billion.)

More mergers and acquisitions

Mergers and acquisitions are returning to the forefront and so are the jobs that accompany them. Companies feel they can make purchases at discounted prices today, and they don t feel those prices will go down much more, says von Stade.

As a result, there s increased demand for positions on the associate and vice president levels, in particular with people who have key contacts at large, publicly-traded companies since they re viewed as employees who could immediately help generate business.

After bonus season

Expect to see an upswing in hires after bonus season, in February 2010, says von Stade. Often, people will wait until they get their bonus to make their move, and firms will stop hiring after September based on the fact that they don t want to buy people out, he says. But they ll be in negotiations, and they ll wait until people get their bonus before they bring them on board.

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