ByDIANA RANSOM
Between dropping consumer> and commodities prices and a rising U.S. dollar, the writing is now on the wall -- and it spells deflation.
Although deflation -- a period of general price decline -- isn t official until the annual inflation rate falls below 0%, the telltale signs are present. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index declined 0.1% in April, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding food and energy, April prices remained flat at 0% from March, according to the BLS. Further, the dollar has ascended in recent months -- jumping 15% against the euro to $1.4307, up from $1.2221 at the start of 2010.
Of course, deflation has its benefits -- chiefly, the boost to your money s value. In a deflationary period, consumers and businesses often receive lower prices for everything from domestically produced breads and cheeses to steel and lumber. However, it can also take a bite out of short-term purchases and certain investments could lose their luster.
To be sure, some investors think disinflation -- a period where inflation rates fall and prices increase more slowly -- rather than deflation is a likelier scenario. Either way, retirement investors had better get used to the idea that major, developed economies are going nowhere fast, says Brian Dolan, the chief currency strategist at FOREX.com.
Here are five ways to invest for slower growth:
Invest in dividend-bearing stocks
If deflation is in fact down the road, moving more money into cash makes a great deal of sense. But if that doesn t happen, and instead inflation perks up, storing cash may erode the value of your portfolio. Instead, consider buying up dividend-bearing stocks, suggests says Karl Mills, the president and chief investment officer for Jurika Mills & Keifer, an independent investment advisory firm in Oakland, Calif. If deflation does kick in and the value of dollars expands, note that finding a dividend-bearing stock may be difficult, he says.
Have exposure to emerging markets
If you re expecting slowed domestic growth, search for investment opportunities in emerging markets with strong fiscal and trade surpluses and strong economic growth, says Mills. In particular, he likes the prospects for China and Canada. In addition, Dolan suggests keeping Brazil, Russia and India, which are the most prominent of the emerging market investment destinations, on your radar.
Of course, focusing on emerging economies has its own hazards, says Dolan. But if you have a long-term horizon -- 10 years or more -- you can usually ride out bad timing, he says.
Don t forget about gold
"The widespread consensus that gold is an effective inflation hedge is not on the mark," notes David A. Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates in a recent report. On the contrary, gold may be a better deflation hedge, he says. During the 1930s, the last extended deflationary period, the price of gold in British pounds doubled. Plus, gold is also a hedge against financial instability. "When the world is awash with over $200 trillion of household, corporate and government liabilities, deflation works against debt servicing capabilities and calls into question the integrity of the global financial system," says Rosenberg.
Of course, gold's detractors say the precious metal is close to its peak. Further, it's an asset that can also lose value during a deflationary period, says Dean Barber, the founder of the Barber Financial Group, a wealth management firm in Lenexa, Kan.
Hedge against deflation with bonds
If you re gearing up for deflation, consider which assets will hold up well and which can deflate, says Barber. Practically the only asset that doesn t deflate is bonds, he says. Although it makes sense to buy longer-term bonds during a deflationary period, investors should be considerate of interest rate hikes, which will cut into the value of longer-term bonds. For this reason, Barber suggests sticking to short-term bonds.
Mickey Cargile, the founder and managing partner at WNB Private Client Services in Midland, Texas, also suggests buying short-term bonds during a period of slowed growth. Specifically, though, if you re concerned about slowing corporate earnings, then you might want to take a look at corporate bonds in particular, high-yield bonds, Cargile says.
Pay down debts
No matter where you invest your retirement assets, it s safe to say paying down debts in a deflationary environment is a good idea, says Mills. The reason? You are paying an increasingly high price against assets that are losing value, he says. If, for example, a house today is worth $500,000 and a year from now will be worth $400,000 and you have a $400,000 mortgage, the best thing is to sell the house or pay off the mortgage, Mills says.



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