YOU MAY STILL BE

feeling the sugar buzz of Halloween, but retailers have already moved onto the next holiday event: Christmas. With a mere 48 shopping days left, stores are filling with Christmas lights, decorations and holiday music.

They've also kicked off holiday promotions. About 60% of retailers were advertising holiday sale prices by the end of October, according to the National Retail Federation. The reason for the early start: Retailers want to snag consumers before hefty winter heating bills start rolling in, says Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics, a research firm in Swampscott, Mass.

Whether or not the deals will get better as the holiday season progresses depends on consumer spending, says Richard Feinberg, director of Purdue University's Retail Institute and Center for Customer-Driven Quality. If spending is robust, retailers won't work as hard to get shoppers into their stores. But if shoppers stay home, the deals will likely improve down the line.

So what's a savvy shopper to do? Create a budget, know what you want to buy for each person on your shopping list, and start looking for bargains. If you find a good price for a hot item, grab it; you might not be able to find that price again once holiday shoppers are out in full force, say Anna Wallner and Kristina Matisic, authors of "The Shopping Bags," a guide for savvy shoppers.

If, on the other hand, you're looking for something easy to find like a cashmere scarf you might want to hold off. Retailers still traditionally wait to roll out their best deals until later in the season. "Black Friday weekend will still be the huge kickoff," says Ellen Davis, a spokeswoman for the NRF.

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