With just SIX weeks left until Christmas, layaway plans and rewards programs are in full throttle. But to get the best prices, you should hold off on holiday shopping until at least Black Friday, the annual shopping spree that puts retailers in the black for the year.

That s a big difference from 2008, when retailers midrecession started holiday sales and discounts in October to unload excess inventory. This time around, in an attempt to minimize their losses, retailers ordered more conservatively. With fewer items to sell, they can afford to keep merchandise at full price until the very last minute, and most will until the day after Thanksgiving, says Kimberly Picciola, a senior equity analyst who covers the retail sector at Morningstar.

What s more, sales numbers right now are on the rise, so retailers have less motivation to slash prices. According to Thomson Reuters, retailers in October reported a 1.8% increase in same-store sales year over year, and nearly every sector had sales gains except for most teenage clothing retailers and department stores. Meanwhile, consumers are starting to choose more discretionary uses for their money; for the third quarter, consumers spent 31% of their spare cash on new clothes (after covering essential living expenses), up from 28% in the first quarter of 2009, according to Nielsen.

Still, in most cases, consumers will get more for their money by holding off on holiday shopping. Here are six tips on navigating holiday sales.

Expect smaller markdowns

Rather than raising their sales numbers, most retailers are focused on preserving their margins, or the profit they make off of every purchase, says Picciola. To pique consumer interest, they will offer discounts in the 10% range; that won t spur the volume of sales a 50% to 75% discount would, but by preserving their margins, the retailers make more money.

Start with the discounters

The recession has been good for the discounters. Year-over-year sales at TJX stores, which include TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods, increased 10% for the month of October, while Costco's sales were up 5%.

Consumers are looking for discounted prices, and these stores are in the position to offer the same merchandise for less money, says Ivan Friedman, the president of New York-based RCS Real Estate Advisors, which specializes in helping retailers evaluate their real estate portfolios by analyzing their sales figures and underperforming stores.

Cultivate patience

The first wave of wider discounts won t kick in until Black Friday, says Friedman. Unless you re eyeing a specific item that s limited in inventory and high in demand, you re better off waiting until after Thanksgiving to find the lowest price.

Expect to see the doorbusters that are typical of that day, especially on consumer electronics, including flat-screen TVs. Consumers are best off waiting until then to start their bulk holiday shopping, he says.

Retailers schedule their rollout of sales and incentives for the holiday shopping season back in the summer. Even though sales increased in September and October, retailers are going to stick to those preplanned markdowns, says Friedman.

While the first large wave of discounts hits on Black Friday, expect to see additional sales on items starting Dec. 1 when retailers focus on moving the items that have trouble selling before the year ends, says Friedman.

And, expect to find the largest pre-Christmas discounts in the last few days leading up to the holiday. This includes shopping for clothing, which gets cheaper closer to Christmas.

Give books, music and movies

While many retailers have ruled out discounts, book, movie and music junkies are in luck: Retailers selling these items are offering an array of sales, coupons and other promotions.

That s because these retail categories are crippling in the face of new innovations, says Friedman. This isn t specific to the holiday season, he says. It s just a shrinking business model based on consumer demand.

Book retailers are competing with the Amazon Kindle; after purchasing a new Kindle for roughly $259 (current full price), consumers can download books electronically for $10 to $15, on average 50% cheaper than buying a hard copy of the book.

Borders is offering sales of up to 40% on select books and a promotion to buy four books and receive the fifth one for free this week.

Meanwhile, DVD movie stores are competing with Netflix (whose monthly plans start at $8.99) and movies on demand services offered by cable companies like Time Warner Cable for around $5 a movie. CD sales are also dwindling thanks to iPod downloading. Best Buy is offering free shipping on movie and music orders of at least $25 and up to 30% off select CDs.

Set your sights lower

At this time last year, luxury stores including Saks Fifth Avenue, Stuart Weitzman and Tourneau introduced unheard-of sales. That s unlikely to reoccur this year, says Friedman.

Like most other retailers, luxury stores ordered less inventory for this holiday season while anticipating that fewer consumers would be willing to spend top money for discretionary purchases.

In addition, same-store sales for October increased at upscale chains like Nordstorm and Saks, up 6.5% and 0.7%, respectively, which lessens the chance that they ll roll out a red carpet of sales and discounts.