ByALEKSANDRA TODOROVA
The Federal Reserve> may be keeping interest rates intact at near 0%, but consumers planning to buy a home or refinance one in the following months may want to take note: The end of record-low mortgage rates appears to be a step closer.
Granted, Wednesday s Federal Open Market Committee statement was nearly identical to that issued in SeptemberAgency mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, are sliced-up pools of mortgages bought by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae.) The program, in which the Fed had pledged to pour up to $1.25 trillion, was intended to run through the end of this year.
The fact that the deadline was not further extended was the wink and a nod that the Fed is serious about bringing the program to a close, says Neil Sullivan, president of Westfield Mortgage, a New Jersey-based mortgage broker. (That the Fed extended the program in September, but didn't increase the amount of MBS it plans to purchase, meanwhile, was considered a sign of the Fed slowing down the pace at which it is buying up mortgage debt.)
Why should homeowners care about this? Because the end of that program will also most likely mark the end of the historically low interest rates seen by borrowers this year. You remove a large purchaser from the market and less demand for mortgage-backed securities will lift mortgage rates higher, says Sullivan.
The shift will also likely introduce volatility back into those markets creating the potential for mortgage rates to fluctuate as widely as half a percentage point within a single day. A half-point (or 50-basis-point) difference in mortgage rates could mean a homeowner pays thousands of dollars more in interest over the life of the loan.
Still, interest rates will likely remain low through at least the end of the year, says Keith Gumbinger, a vice president at mortgage-rate tracking firm HSH Associates. (As of Oct. 30, the average 30-year conforming loan was at 5.16%, according to HSH. Jumbo loans averaged 5.99%.) With the Fed s program expiring, with hopeful upward momentum in economic growth and a bit of job growth, it s reasonable to plan for higher interest rates in later in the year, Gumbinger says. He expects rates on 30-year fixed conforming mortgages to go up to 6%.
Meanwhile, homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, appear to have little reason to worry for now: Unlike 30-year fixed mortgages, ARMs are pegged to short-term rates, which the Fed has indicated will remain at near zero for the time being. If you have an ARM, the indicators which govern your adjustment are likely to remain low for the next year, Gumbinger says. The average 5/1 ARM was at 4.39% for the week ending Oct. 30; jumbo 5/1 ARMs averaged 5.12%.



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