By ANNAMARIA ANDRIOTIS
Until recently, a man's house> was less his castle, more his golden goose: A path to wealth as homes grew in value or were sold, and sold again, for profits upon profits. But 2010 marks the end of a painful transition in homeowners' relationship to their domiciles. If the market bust and ongoing foreclosure crisis has made an impression, it is that a home can no longer be counted on to bring immediate wealth, and price appreciation might no longer be a cornerstone of savings and income.
At its most basic, home ownership has simply gotten less attractive. As a trend, that started even before the market crashed. Home ownership has declined every year since its peak in 2004, according to the U.S. Census' Housing Vacancy Survey. But the market bust and its aftermath, including rising foreclosures, uncertainty about the job market, and the fear of buying a home and ending up underwater, has created a new outlook for many consumers, says Stuart Gabriel, director at UCLA's Ziman Center for Real Estate. A shift is well under way: People are relying less on owning a home to accumulate wealth and are instead returning to more traditional ways to save, he says.
As a result, consumers are likely to save in new and different ways, instead of relying so heavily on their home to appreciate, experts say. That means putting money in stocks and savings accounts, IRAs and 529 plans. Consumers are currently saving about 6% of their disposable income, up from 3.5% two years ago, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Also, investors pumped $441 million into stock funds in October, the most recent data available from the Investment Company Institute, compared to the $6.9 billion that they withdrew in October 2009. It's also likely that more people will start to increasingly rely on 401(k)s and individual retirement accounts for retirement savings, says Paul Bishop, vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors.
Of course, to some, the recent tumult is simply an indication that now is a good time to buy. Mortgage rates are still relatively low, and fewer people are shopping for a home now than will be when job numbers pick up, says Leonard Baron, a real estate lecturer at San Diego State University. And real estate analysts say the worst of home price declines is over. "We're at the bottom and we'll be in a better place by this time next year," says Robert Shiller, co-developer of the S&P/Case-Shiller index. As employment improves, he says, the effects should ripple into the housing market.
But this may be a longer-term shift. Prices are expected to be mostly flat throughout next year, according to the National Association of Realtors. And home ownership is unlikely to reach pre-housing crisis levels for at least the next three years, says Bishop. Even with home values increasing gradually, the threat of foreclosures expected to be up about 9% this year and to rise another 10% next year, according to RealtyTrac.com and ongoing uncertainty in the job market make owning a home a risky proposition: Even for those whose own financial situation is secure, the idea of buying a house in a neighborhood that may be blighted in a year is hardly attractive. And for those who were foreclosed upon, walked away from their mortgage, or even short sold their house, the damage to their credit scores may prevent them from buying again for a long time. With fewer consumers who are able to buy a home, or even want to, home prices will stay low and that means the family home-as-golden goose may have given its last squawk for a good long time.



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