Will iPhone 5 Launch Next Week? Unlikely

Poletti: Apple Inc. is hosting its World Wide Developer Conference next week, and fans on both East and West coasts are speculating on what the company has in store.

Apple Inc. is hosting its World Wide Developer Conference next week, and fans on both East and West coasts are speculating on what the company has in store.

On Monday, Apple (AAPL) Chief Executive Tim Cook will kick off the event in San Francisco with a keynote address. Some investors might be expecting an announcement on the widely anticipated iPhone 5 at the developer conference in the wake of Wall Street chatter about declining iPhone sales.

Not so, according to some analysts. WWDC tends to be a software-focused conference and Apple has a lot of upgrades in the works. The company is expected to show the next version of its iOS software for the iPhone and an upgrade of its OS X software for the Macintosh. The iOS update will indeed show what kind of new features can be expected in the new iPhone later this year, which is widely assumed to be called iPhone 5.

"Frankly I would be very surprised if they do announce the iPhone 5," said Shaw Wu, an analyst with Sterne Agee, in an interview. "We think WWDC will be more about software." Wu said he believes Apple will launch an iPhone 5 in the fall, with a bigger screen and developed for faster LTE networks. But he added, considering it is Apple, "you never know."

In an April press release, Apple's senior vice president of worldwide marketing, Phil Schiller, focused on news for the company's two operating systems. "We have a great WWDC planned this year and can't wait to share the latest news about iOS and OS X Mountain Lion with developers," he said.

Apple traditionally does not comment on unannounced products.

One feature expected to be previewed or unveiled is a new mapping application for the iPhone and the iPad, developed by Apple. A tech blog, 9to5 Mac, reported last month that Apple has developed its own mapping app as part of the new iOS 6, which will displace Google Inc.'s (GOOG) Maps on the iPhone with a 3D mode. Read 9to5 Mac blog.

"We are expecting some significant developments around the Apple Ecosystem the 'glue' that sustains its momentum," wrote Ben Reitzes, an analyst with Barclays Capital, in a note on Monday. Reitzes also expects upgrades to Apple's MacBook Air and MacBook Pro lines. "We believe innovations, new software, more NAND options and more attractive pricing could catalyze sales with the potential to double the run-rate sales of portables at Apple within a few quarters."

Reitzes also noted that he does not expect the iPhone 5 to be released until the fall.

Apple fans and investors will remember that the last iPhone, Apple's iPhone 4S, which included Siri, its "intelligent assistant" was announced on Oct. 4 last year, with availability 10 days later in the U.S. and some other markets.

Many investors were disappointed last year that the iPhone 4S was not the iPhone 5 and seemed to be an incremental upgrade in the iPhone. Read about investor disappointment with iPhone 4S

However, they ultimately consoled themselves with the voice recognition and speaking abilities of Siri, even though its performance is still spotty. Siri is featured in a host of star-studded commercials, including new ones with the normally cynical actor John Malkovich. Analysts also believe an upgrade for Siri could materialize, and hopefully there is one in the works soon. Last week at the D10 conference,Cook said Apple is "doubling down" on Siri, which he said is one of the most popular features of the iPhone 4S. Read "Apple's iPhone hype: Siri is all hot air."

"But there's more that it can do, and we have a lot of people working on this," Cook said at All Things D. "And I think you will be really pleased with some of the things you're going to see over the coming months." Read All Things D Tim Cook interview here.

Still, the iPhone 5, whenever it comes out, will be a much bigger deal.

"The iPhone 5 probably will be on LTE, with a different form factor, a bigger screen," said Wu of Sterne Agee. "It's going to be a very significant upgrade."

Theories and speculation will likely rage all the way until Monday. And knowing Apple's obsession with secrecy, and the penchant of its late co-founder Steve Jobs for surprises, no one really knows for sure.

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