Bob Forsythe is planning to take his family to Maui this summer, on a vacation that will be packed with oceanside luaus, snorkeling trips and tours of the island s postcard-worthy peaks and waterfalls. And given the improving economy, the price his travel agent found wasn t as high as he d expected for a luxury trip: In all, the Ladera Ranch, Calif., banker plans to spend about $2,000 a person for the week.

Is that a deal? In the coming months, legions of travelers will hit the road for that venerable American ritual, the summer vacation. And with so many airlines, cruise lines and hotels hyping their discounts (the latest eye-catcher: $88 a day for a cruise with balcony cabin), most vacationers are convinced they re getting a bargain. In fact, a recent survey by Travel Ticker found that 25 percent of people think there will be better travel deals to choose from this year compared with last year.

But the usual bargain sleuthing may take on a special character in 2010. Unlike firms in most industries, which are still being forced to keep prices down, many travel companies are ahead of the game in controlling fares and rates. In the past two years, airlines reduced the number of domestic seats by more than 10 percent, with markets like Chicago and Las Vegas seeing cuts of over 15 percent. Hotels, meanwhile, have been fine-tuning their yield-management systems (which allow them to charge different prices for the same room) and pawning off more rooms on blind booking sites like Priceline.com, which keep discounted rates hush-hush.

Even expert bargain hunters have a hard time determining what really counts as a good deal, thanks to the growing number of smoke-and-mirrors sales tactics, including packaging, where it s unclear how much each element of the trip costs, and members only sales, which offer unadvertised rates. The result? Maddening pricing that consumers don t understand, says Tom Botts, managing partner at travel consultancy Hudson Crossing.

Our solution: Using data from industry watchers and the travel companies themselves, we compared today s fares and rates with what was available two years ago before the crash sent prices tumbling. The good news: Our analysis of airline yields industry lingo for the average price a person pays to fly one mile shows prices are actually down slightly, on both international and domestic flights compared with their precrash levels. And while hotels are down overall, that won t do much for travelers bound for, say, the Bahamas, where hotel rates were recently up 16 percent versus the same time in 2008. Below, a look at five popular destinations, designed to help you sniff out the bargains to grab and the ones to pass up.

London

Londontown faces one big problem this summer, says Mindy Rozenberg, from Santa Ana, Calif. based Pisa Brothers Travel: Air is outrageous. Indeed, it certainly looked that way over spring break, when fares rose substantially after airlines cut back the number of flights. And at first glance, things don t look much better on the ground, with average daily hotel rates up more than 8 percent at this spring over last, according to Smith Travel Research even as rates in other European cities, like Rome, dropped.

But today s rates actually wouldn t have looked so bad to a prerecession vacationer; in early 2010 rates were actually down 23 percent, compared with those of the same period in 2008.

What s more, there s the currency factor. Two years ago the British pound was crushing the greenback, 2 to 1; these days the dollar has finally gained back nearly a quarter of its relative value, with $1 currently worth about 65 pence which makes those West End shows and gastropub dinners a little less likely to bust your vacation budget.

Deal or No Deal? Draw
Tip: Use hotel points or airline miles when possible.

The Caribbean

Travelers wanting to play the dollar to their advantage in sunnier spots should fare well in the Caribbean. Compared with two years ago, U.S. currency now buys you more throughout the region, from Jamaica (which has its own dollar) to islands like St. Bart s and Martinique, which use the euro. The dollar has also gained on the Mexican peso, sweetening some of that country s already impressive, post swine flu deals. But if our Southern neighbor s Caribbean coast conjures up images of Canc n s tequila-drenched tourist traps, travel experts point out that the so-called Mayan Riviera, located less than an hour south, has recently seen a boom in luxury resorts. For deal hunters, this means the chance to combine cheap flights to Canc n (down 15 percent this spring, compared with 2008) with high-end offers like the Mandarin Oriental Riviera Maya s recent stay four nights, get one free promotion.

Deal or No Deal? Deal
Tip: Look for favorable exchange rates; try Mexico for better prices.

About two-thirds of visitors to Alaska come by ship, a number that includes Dan Smith, a retiree from Kona, Hawaii. Last summer Smith booked a weeklong Alaska cruise for himself and his wife for an impressive $900. When the couple booked again this summer admittedly, a longer cruise on a pricier line the bill went up, to $2,100. That s no surprise to Dan Ilves, vice president of leisure sales for travel consortium TravelStore, who says last year s cruise pricing to the northernmost state was an aberration: Alaska was really being dumped. What s more, cruise lines like Princess Cruises and Cruise West have pulled some of their ships from Alaskan routes for this summer, leaving fewer open berths. But even with prices on their way up, Alaska cruise prices are still looking better than they did before the recession. According to SureCruise.com, the average seven-day Alaskan cruise with balcony cabin for this summer is still down 10 percent, compared with the same period in 2008.

Deal or No Deal? Deal
Tip: Book cruises now for the best deals.

Orlando

For families heading to Orlando, this might be the year to finally get the kids their own room. Hotels are already cheaper in the summer, and the rates just keep dropping. The average daily rate in Orlando last year was $93, down more than 12 percent from 2008, and during the 2010 spring-break travel season, the average hotel price was down 17 percent from 2008, according to Travelocity. Leaving the hotel, though, may also mean leaving the deals. Car rentals, also a big expense for many Orlando visitors, are one segment of the travel industry that has bucked the price-slashing trend. This spring the average daily rate for a midsize car at an airport location was up nearly 28 percent from the same period in 2008, and the rise should continue this summer, says Neil Abrams, president of Abrams Consulting Group.

Finally, there s that big-eared intangible: the Disney factor. The company recently touted promos like seven days for the price of four at Disney hotels, plus free dining, but the offers were available for select dates only. Travelers who can t snag those specials will still be stuck paying regular park prices which typically rise each year. An adult two-day park-hopper ticket, for instance, has climbed 13 percent since the summer of 2008. (Disney declined to comment.)

Deal or No Deal? Draw
Tip: Avoid rental cars if possible; watch for Disney specials.

Hawaii

As with Orlando, the latest Hawaiian deals are all about accommodations. Average daily hotel rates were down across the islands this spring, though some islands (Maui, down 11 percent from the previous year) had significantly larger price drops than others (Kauai, down just 5 percent in the same period). The rub, says Genevieve Shaw Brown, travel analyst for Travelocity, is that Hawaii s low hotel rates are at least partially due to the spiraling cost of getting there. The most recent numbers from Hawaiian Airlines show that while yields dropped a bit last year, they were still up 30 percent from 2007. More recently, spring-break fares to Honolulu and Kona were up 5 to 6 percent from two years ago.

John and Michele Mattila discovered this for themselves while recently planning their sixth trip to Hawaii. While the Stacy, Minn., couple kept costs down on the ground with a timeshare, the airfare was almost 40 percent higher than it was on their last flight over, in 2008. The answer: Rely on miles, for a week s vacation of less than $800. Pretty cheap for a week in Hawaii, says John.

Deal or No Deal? Draw
Tip: Use miles or try off times for decent fares.