ByKELLI B. GRANT
Health officials are> seeing some evidence that the spread of swine flu may be starting to ebb. That s obviously good news from a public health perspective but it also means that travel bargain hunters may want to take a closer look at booking deals to destinations hit hardest by the hype.
Since the swine flu was first identified as a new strain on April 24, there have been 1,085 confirmed cases world-wide, including 590 in Mexico and 286 in the United States, reports the World Health Organization. In the past week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the European Union have both issued travel warnings for Mexico and, in the case of the EU, to the U.S. as well. But now it appears things are subsiding. Schools in Tennessee, New York and Arizona that shut down over swine flu concerns are now reopening or planning to do so in the days ahead. Mexico s health minister Jose Angel Cordova announced Monday that the number of new cases being reported is starting to ebb and, as a result, the country plans to lower public alerts and allow businesses in Mexico City to reopen.
Nevertheless, the swine flu has taken a toll on popular travel destinations in Mexico and even Central America (where very few swine flu cases have been found). Some flights are almost empty, as are many hotel rooms. Continental Airlines was forced to reduce its capacity on routes to Mexico by 50% through the end of the month as a result of weak demand. Even prospective travelers seem to be steering clear: Travel review and advice web site, TripAdvisor.com, reports that it's seen a 50% drop in searches for Mexican destinations.
But is it safe to go now? A lot of people want to convince travelers that things are alright. The Mexican government is certainly hoping to do that by assuring everyone that Mexico City is ready to be reopened for business. The WHO says travel restrictions aren't necessary. And airlines are working hard to regain passenger confidence. Last week, German airline Lufthansa began stationing doctors on all its flights to and from Mexico, announcing that they will be there to detect and treat affected passengers.
Of course, while many experts agree that the hype has overshadowed the current level of risk, travelers may understandably feel anxious. But as long as they take standard precautions like washing their hands and avoiding obviously ill people they should be fine, says Dr. Alan Magill, a Washington, D.C.-based infectious disease specialist and president-elect of the International Society of Travel Medicine.
If someone offered me an all-expenses-paid trip to Cancun, would I go? Yes, absolutely, says Gerald Evans, an infectious disease specialist at Queen s University in Ontario and president of the Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease Canada. The exception: Infants, the elderly, people with compromised immune systems and others typically at high risk of serious flu complications should stay at home, he says.
So if you're feeling more comfortable amid the latest updates suggesting that the spread may be subsiding then you probably have a chance to beat the crowds back to some of these destinations and do so at a substantial discount.
Here are some of the current deals to Mexico (and beyond) that you can find:
Number of confirmed cases: 116 (confirmed in the states of Mexico and Hidalgo where Mexico City is located)
The epicenter of the pandemic, Mexico City has (understandably) been unpopular with travelers. Yet Mexican officials say the number of new cases reported has ebbed, and businesses will start to reopen in the days ahead. The fares to Mexico City are, of course, very cheap, says George Hobica, founder of fare-tracking site AirfareWatchdog.com.
Sample deal: Travelocity.com lists a round-trip flight from San Francisco to Mexico City on Aeromexico for $318 (travel dates are May 16 through May 22). Last year, that flight would have set you back an average $466, according to FareDetective.com. Total airfare savings: 32%. Want a place to stay? In Mexico City, the four-star Camino Real has dropped prices from $233 to $174 per night through May 13. You ll save 25%. On the budget end, the already-affordable Hotel Prim cut its prices from $50 to $30 per night through May 13, a savings of 40%.
All photos from Getty Images>
Number of confirmed cases: Three (confirmed in the state of Quintana Roo where Cancun is located)
Airfares to this spring break haven have dropped by $10 to $50, reducing them to levels typically found during the off-season, says Hobica. Better still: Many airlines are extending current deals through prime winter travel season so you can lock in the low rates now and travel later.
Sample deal: Expedia.com is offering a mid-May round-trip flight on Aeromexico from New York to Cancun for $275. Last year, a similar flight cost an average of $478, according to FareDetective.com. That's a 41% drop year-over-year. Hotels are also slashing prices. Hyatt Regency Cancun cut its prices most nights through June to $85 a night down from $242 -- a savings of 65%.
Number of confirmed cases: One
Travelers are already nervous about flying internationally because of the risk of illness and Costa Rica's proximity to Mexico isn't helping much, says Rick Seaney, CEO of booking site FareCompare.com. Thanks to the waning economy and the arrival of new budget airlines like JetBlue and Spirit, airfare to Costa Rica was already averaging well below the $500 benchmark for a May flight between New York and San Jose. Now travelers can save even more.
Sample deal: Orbitz.com has a flight from Philadelphia to San Jose on May 16 (returning May 22) on Delta for $369. Last year, that flight would have cost $606, reports FareDetective.com. Savings: 39%. Costa Rica is also a bargain place for summer rentals this year with some properties as much as 60% cheaper than in previous years. In San Jose, the all-inclusive, four-star Occidental Grand Papagayo is charging $257 per night through May, a 28% discount off its regular $356 rate.
Number of confirmed cases: None
Even though no cases of swine flu have been confirmed in Puerto Vallarta, the city still closed local businesses for almost two weeks as a precaution. Businesses reopen May 6, and when they do travelers should have plenty of deals to choose from.
Sample deal: U.S. Airways offers a round-trip flight from Seattle to Puerto Vallarta leaving May 16 and returning May 22 for $355, according to Farecast.com. Last year, that flight would have cost $481, according to FareDetective.com. You ll save 26%. At the Westin Resort & Spa Puerto Vallarta, rates were slashed from $155 to $96 per night from May 16-30. A savings of 38%.



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