Wholesale restaurant food prices rose 7.4% in 2007, the largest increase in three decades, according to the National Restaurant Association, an industry group. That's even bigger than the jump consumers are seeing at the supermarket, where grocery prices have gone up 5.3%, per the Consumer Price Index.
Blame a combination of inflation and surging demand for commodities in developing countries, says Nicole Miller Regan, senior research analyst at investment bank Piper Jaffray in Minneapolis. Oil prices hovering above $100 a barrel haven't helped, adding to shipping costs, as well as energy bills for on-site storage and cooking.
The end result might be sticker shock the next time you dine out, from haute cuisine to McDonald's — which has re-branded its Dollar Menu in many locations as the "Dollar Menu & More." Industrywide, average menu prices increased 3.7% in 2007, according to the National Restaurant Association. The group expects similar increases this year. Because consumers are also facing high grocery prices, restaurants have a little more wiggle room to raise prices without losing customers, says Regan.
Still, restaurants must eat other costs to avoid unsettling consumers' appetites, points out Paul Olson, a research analyst in Minneapolis with Restaurant Finance Monitor, an industry publication. They may be reducing portion sizes, finding creative uses for preparation scraps such as meat trimmings, or simply replacing loss-leader items like steaks with profit-heavy pastas and salads. "They're going to do their best to hide these changes," he says. "It's not going to be very noticeable to most consumers."
To counterbalance rising costs, restaurants also are offering more promotions to tempt consumers into a night on the town. Savvy consumers can easily trim their bill by 50% or more — without forgoing the filet mignon in favor of a cheap pasta dish. Try these six tips to spend less:
DinnerBroker.com: Up to 30% will be deducted from your bill, depending on the restaurant and time of your reservation. A 5:30 p.m. table at Boston's highly rated (and pricey) Sel de la Terra, for example, would net you a 15% discount. Each reservation also earns 100 reward points, which can be redeemed for gift certificates at any of the site's more than 1,000 partner restaurants. Redeem 1,000 points for a $10 certificate.
OpenTable.com: Earn 100 to 1,000 points for each reservation. Redeem 2,000 points for a $20 gift check to use at any of the site's 8,000-plus partner restaurants.