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Jonathan Hoenig
How to Tame Market Uncertainty; Hoenig: While we can't control or predict the markets, we can make decisions about our portfolios.
SmartMoney.comIt's often said that the market hates uncertainty. But plainly speaking, the market is uncertainty, endless uncertainty -- over earnings, interest rates, innovation, management and the countless other factors that help determine prices.
Forex Teaches Trading Without Training Wheels; Hoenig: For those yearning for 24-hour action and wild volatility, foreign-exchange trading is the place to be.
SmartMoney.comTrading isn't something one can learn through reading books or research alone. Like riding a bicycle or jumping into the deep end of a pool, it's something you've got to engage in to actually understand. There's no substitute for on-the-job ...
The Right Investing Tool for the Job; Hoenig: When to opt for open-ended mutual funds, ETFs, or direct investments.
SmartMoney.comAs the old saying goes, "If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail". The trouble is that, in the real world, everything isn't a nail. The best tool for the job depends not only on the job itself, but who exactly is wielding ...
The New Case for Real-Estate Stocks; Hoenig: Six years after the market collapsed, real estate once again looks promising.
SmartMoney.comMarkets aren't oil paintings. They're more like dynamic watercolors that never fully dry. Look at natural gas, which traded as high as $14/MMBtu in 2005 before dropping to $2 in 2012, or Netflix, which fell from $300 to $80 a share in less ...
Buy Stocks Like Tomatoes -- in Season; Hoenig: Choosing when -- and how much -- to buy may be as important as what to buy.
SmartMoney.comFor all the endless banter in print, online and on TV about what to buy or sell, remarkably little attention is ever devoted to when to buy or sell -- or even more importantly -- how to do it.
Why This Isn't Bubble 2.0; Hoenig: Just because Facebook paid $1 billion for Instagram doesn't mean the market is partying like it's 1999.
SmartMoney.comFacebook's $1 billion purchase of Instagram, along with the social networking site's own forthcoming $100 billion IPO has many wondering if we're witnessing a bubble.
Gold Bugs May Get Squashed; Hoenig: All signs suggest investors should end their love affair with the yellow metal.
SmartMoney.comIt's hard to imagine the public's view on precious metals back in the early 2000s, back when companies like Sun Microsystems, and InfoSpace still dominated investor attention, oil traded at $30 a barrel and gold wasn't only unfollowed by ...
Use a 'Buy Stop' to Avoid Missing the Bus; Hoenig: Why it makes sense to postpone buying a stock until after its price rises.
SmartMoney.comIt's the classic evasion of reality. We own a losing stock that continues to drop. But rather than sell and take the loss, we stubbornly hold on and wait for a bounce that never comes. The only thing worse would be doubling down along the ...
What the Bond Market Is Telling Us; Hoenig: When governments manipulate interest rates, it becomes harder to measure the economic reality.
SmartMoney.comWhether it's gasoline or groceries, blaming traders because you happen not to care for a market's prices is like blaming the mailman because you don't like the mail. They are price messengers, not manipulators.
When the Best Trade Is No Trade; Hoenig: For those betting against Treasurys -- which are coming off their worst week in months -- resist the temptation to take quick gains.
SmartMoney.comThere are times when investors ought to take a cue from Congress and try the "do nothing" approach. Because it's never the trading itself that makes you any money; rather, it's making the right trades at the right time ...
The End of the Bond Bull Market (Finally); Hoenig: Shorting bonds may be the new big thing, as market seems headed for a fall.
SmartMoney.comIn this column five years ago, I called currency markets "the new Wild West" and predicted that foreign exchange trading would "soon become the hottest game in town."
Give Greece a Chance; Hoenig: New emerging markets such as Greece and Egypt carry plenty of risks -- but also potential upside.
SmartMoney.comA decade ago, investors who wanted to put money into China, Brazil, Latin America or other now-popular emerging markets weren't seen as contrarian -- but crazy. But after years of growth and massive investor inflows, many once-emerging ...
Dow 13000: What's in a Number? Hoenig: It's only a number, but there's no denying that stocks are no longer the pariah asset class.
SmartMoney.comWhat does it mean when the Dow crosses another milestone, as it did this week by finishing around 13000? Both a lot and not that much. Prices don't exist in a vacuum, but within the context of their history and that of other asset ...
We Need More Apples, Fewer DMVs; Hoenig: The creation of wealth through technological innovation deserves to be celebrated.
SmartMoney.comI vividly remember my parents bringing home our first answering machine, a duel-cassette Panasonic Easa-Phone that was considered state-of-the-art back in the early 1980s.
Are Short-Term Yields Calling Bernanke's Bluff? Hoenig: Despite the Fed's determination to keep short-term interest rates low, they keep rising. Here are two ways to play the trend.
SmartMoney.comIn an effort to boost the economy, the Federal Reserve announced in January it would maintain short-term interest rates at exceptionally low levels through at least late 2014, more than a year longer than had been previously stated.
The 'Consumptionist' Dead End; Hoenig: Why the persistent belief that the economy will grow as a result of government spending is flawed.
SmartMoney.comIt you keep repeating a lie long enough, people eventually start to accept it as truth. So even as the Federal debt hit new record highs and bankrupt entitlement states like Greece collapse, how else to explain the persistent belief among ...
'They' Don't Move the Market; Hoenig: The belief that savvy speculators can manipulate the markets is flawed. Investors should instead focus on how stocks are moving.
SmartMoney.comThe field now known as behavioral finance was pioneered in the early 20th century by writers like George C. Selden, who in 1912 published "Psychology of the Stock Market" with the then-novel notion that "the movements of ...
When Good Stocks Love Bad News; Hoenig: Since headlines are a lagging indicator, investors should focus on the markets themselves.
SmartMoney.comMost investors read news reports to evaluate a company's prospects. Bullish or bearish articles naturally impact our perception -- and positions. Yet in most cases we interpret the news in the wrong way. News headlines are, by ...
Penny Stocks Aren't Worth a Dime; Hoenig: There are few lower probability bets than penny stocks, especially of microcaps trading at lows.
SmartMoney.comAt any given time, without even looking, I'd gamble that most of the stocks on the yearly new-low list trade under $5 a share. Take a gander today, for example, and you'll find AspenBio Pharama at 80 cents, Qualstar Corp. at $1.80 ...
In Praise of Private Equity; Hoenig: Venture and private equity investors who funded Facebook and other successful companies in their early stages are being unfairly targeted.
SmartMoney.comA decade ago, in the immediate aftermath of the Nasdaq bubble, the term "dot-com" became a slur. Having seen immense fortunes made and lost overnight in companies like CMGI or Webvan, investors burned by Nasdaq 5000 swore off the ...
A Pure Play Inflation Bet; Hoenig: Two new exchange-traded funds aim to provide a better way to bet for or against inflation. Are they worth a look?
SmartMoney.comBen Bernanke might not see inflation on the horizon, but after years of a high-liquidity diet from the Federal Reserve, historic deficit spending in Washington and little discernible economic growth to show for it, investors are rationally ...
Distinguishing Trades From Investments; Hoenig: The way many investors categorize their portfolio positions needs rethinking.
SmartMoney.comThe market exists independently of how we think or feel about it. We buy every stock with the hope and expectation it will perform, but with the humility to admit we could be wrong. That determination is up to the market, not us.
Playing the Rally in Transport Stocks; Hoenig: Investors with an appetite for dividends – and risk -- might want to bet on shipping stocks.
SmartMoney.comAfter a disastrous 2011 which saw a financial implosion in Europe and an economic downturn worldwide, risk assets have rebounded strongly so far in 2012, pushing the S&P 500 index to a five-month high. But as we pointed out earlier this ...
Stocks and the Dollar: A New Correlation? Hoenig: For more than two years, a rise in stock prices was accompanied by a drop in the greenback. But that relationship may be changing.
SmartMoney.comLike a once happily married couple that ends up getting divorced, correlations in financial markets routinely change and fade over time. Two assets that were in complete symbiosis and moving in lock-step one year can quickly fall out of ...
Stocks That Could Sail in 2012; Hoenig: These three shipping stocks look set to take recent upward momentum into the new year.
SmartMoney.comWhen Occupy Wall Street mounted a substantial West Coast protest last week, it wasn't a bank or government office they sought to disrupt, but Oakland's shipping port, the fifth busiest in the country. Also targeted were ports in ...
Time to Take Your Medicine Stocks? Many drug makers are showing strength, lending credibility to the notion that a sector-wide revaluation is underway.
SmartMoney.comPharmaceutical firms are modern-day miracle workers. Not too long ago, leeches were still used for bloodletting and whiskey doubled as anesthesia. Now ailments like diabetes and colon cancer, once death sentences, can be treated or managed.
Dating Stocks to Go Steady With; Should you ask out one of the Web's traditional social networks?
SmartMoney.comLong before Facebook, Twitter, MySpace and even Friendster, online dating was the most prominent social experience changed by the Internet. Since the early '90s, this $1 billion business has transformed courtship.
Complex Cooking for New 'Risk' Products; New exchange-traded notes have narrow and limited appeal.
SmartMoney.comOn popular cooking shows, contestants use state-of-the-art equipment to create intricately complex cuisine. Yet most cooks have little everyday use for an immersion circulator or an Anti-Griddle.
Bring Back The Ownership Society; Hoenig: Increasing government control over the economy puts personal choice and initiative at risk.
SmartMoney.comWith so much of the economy now dictated by Washington, not Wall Street, the 2012 Presidential election will have an unmistakable and otherwise disproportionate impact on the capital markets.
Not All Stock Trades Are Equal; Don't treat every equity investment the same.
SmartMoney.comThere's no egalitarianism in economics. Not every stock is created nor performs equally, in fact quite the contrary: we count on many investments being losers. And, while we can't control or reliably always predict the markets, we ...
How to Hedge Investment Grade Bonds; Hoenig: Consider taking the other side of the corporate debt trade.
SmartMoney.comWith current yields near 0.01%, average money market funds will double your investment in 7200 years. Patience, dear saver. So when savings accounts, certificates of deposit and government bonds also pay next-to-nothing, savers and investors ...
Time to Sell Government Assets? Hoenig: The deficit supercommittee has failed to do what every other consumer has done in this market: downsize.
SmartMoney.comAs the Congressional Supercommittee announces its failure, one unexplored solution looms large: privatization of state-owned property. From Amtrak to interstate highways, the U.S. government's balance sheet is bloated with assets ...
Three Simple Rules for Buying Stock; Stick to these rules while buying and selling stocks and you'll keep a level head.
SmartMoney.comAmid high-frequency trading and politically-driven markets, basic money management techniques should never change. None of us are right all of the time so what matters most isn't always in what you invest, but rather how you invest. ...
Shipping Stocks: Buy the Whole Fleet? Some ships may sink, but smart trading allows you to take advantage of the winners, writes Jonathan Hoenig.
SmartMoney.comWhen I'm committed to a long-term investment or trade, I presume that a rising tide lifts all boats. To that end, simply buying a single stock might not cut it. In a bull market, you want to own as many stocks for which your thesis ...
The Sovereign Risk Trade Simplified; Nearly a decade removed from the last round of sovereign crises, ETFs and ETNs make bets on foreign debt and currencies easier.
SmartMoney.comThe last wave of country defaults and currency crises made hedge fund managers into both stars and scapegoats. But, now, almost a decade removed from the last major sovereign debt disaster in Argentina, almost any investor can wear those ...
Speculators Make Markets Too; There's a lot of unfair outrage over speculation, writes Jonathan Hoenig.
SmartMoney.comWith Greece's 1-year Treasury notes yielding more than 200% to maturity, a default or severe haircut is a lock. For months, though, politicians sought to obfuscate the fiscal struggles, clearly predicted by free markets. Calls for ...
Play a Volatile Market With Less at Risk; Does the up-and-down market have you wanting to take a risk? Try this instead.
SmartMoney.comVolatile markets -- hinging every day on fiscal policies in Europe or economic results out of China - offer temptations, teasing you into taking a risk.
Short Bonds or Buy Stocks? Stocks and interest rates both moved higher in October, writes Jonathan Hoenig. Which is the better investment now?
SmartMoney.comAfter a summer sell-off, stocks are set to end October with their biggest monthly gain since 1974. At the same time, interest rates rose every week during the month, capping the longest losing streak for bonds in two years. The yield on the ...
In Defense of Corporations; Occupy Wall Street is pointing at the wrong guys.
SmartMoney.comThe Occupy Wall Street movement is built on overt disapproval for corporations and the pressure they exert on governments. But this position runs right past the actual structure of a corporation.
Big Ships, Cheaper Prices; Shares of shipping companies remain deeply undervalued, writes Jonathan Hoenig.
SmartMoney.comWe do not trade a firm's earnings, management or products, only shares of its stock. Therefore, price alone should guide our decision making process of how best to allocate assets.
When Ignoring the Herd Pays; Even Apple and gold were once contrarian bets.
SmartMoney.comBeing a contrarian is lonely. People think you're crazy. Consider the cases of gold and Apple. "There is still a small minority of people out there that believes the world is coming to an end and that gold is the only place to ...
Picking Over an Imploding Europe; Four stocks and funds that make the best of Europe's bad situation.
SmartMoney.comEuropean markets are showing signs of severe distress. Short-term government bond yields in Greece now top 90% in Greece and 17% in Portugal. German and French stocks ended the third quarter down more than 25%. Italian stocks dropped nearly ...
Getting Back in the Game; The best traders and investors learn from their losses.
SmartMoney.comMany of the world's most successful investors have endured losing streaks. Warren Buffett and other value investors trailed the markets during the tech bubble and then came roaring back. Carl Icahn, a noted agitator for change at major ...
How to Bet On Rising Rates; Interest rates may be low now, but not for long, writes Jonathan Hoenig.
SmartMoney.comI've passionately argued against bailouts, government intervention and entitlement spending for a decade. But unlike the protestors blocking traffic in New York, my brand of vigilantism involves trading, not occupying.
Occupy Wall Street: A Sad Display; The occupation and threats amount to little more than mob rule, writes Jonathan Hoenig
SmartMoney.comThere's something rather sad about the "Occupy Wall Street" protests which have been underway for over two weeks in New York, Chicago, Boston and other major US cities.
The Anti-Bernanke Bet; Signs suggest the Fed's efforts to keep rates low may not work.
SmartMoney.comFrom Gordon Brown's gold sale to the U.S.'s unprofitable position in GM, governments are awful traders. As we've pointed out numerous times over the past few years, efforts to prop up, stimulate and interfere with markets ...
7 Habits of Highly Effective Traders; The very best investors tend to share these attributes.
SmartMoney.comThere's something tauntingly accessible about "The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People," the 1989 Stephen Covey self-help book that's sold more than 15 million copies worldwide. Not surprisingly, the prospect of ...
Federal Actions Create Fear, Correlation; As with 2008, investors are barely differentiating among risk assets -- they're selling with the herd.
SmartMoney.comMuch like a Salvador Dali painting or Samuel Beckett play, there was a grand absurdity to President Barack Obama's unveiling of his jobs bill this month. It wasn't just bewildering that the president, who has never created a ...
Time to Swing for the Greek Fences; For the bold, a handful of Greek shipping companies could pay off in the long run.
SmartMoney.com"The United States has been downgraded, and this is how bad it is: Even Greece won't talk to us," joked Jay Leno last month. Indeed, Greece, like the other big European entitlement states, teeters on bankruptcy. European ...
What's Wrong With Painting the Tape? Buying and selling shares shouldn't be treated as a criminal act -- regardless of an investor's intent.
SmartMoney.comFrom the fastest high-frequency funds to the smallest E*Trade accounts, investors are all looking to do the same thing: trade in a free marketplace with the goal of making a profit.
Buy and Hold Isn't Dead; Investors who made long-term bets on gold, bonds and other asset classes have won big.
SmartMoney.comIn today's choppy markets, some investing pros argue that the strategy of buying and holding stocks, bonds and other investments is dead. The way to make money, many now claim, is by actively jumping in and out of different asset ...
Smoother Waters Ahead for Shipping Stocks? By one measure, the troubled industry appears to be turning around.
SmartMoney.comThere's a fine line between being persistent and early. A number of months ago I highlighted shipping stocks as a distressed industry with profit potential. But like other risky assets, they instead took a painful fall over the summer, ...
4 Keys to a Healthy Portfolio; Pay attention to asset allocation, position size, liquidity and losses. The rest is noise.
SmartMoney.comEarlier this week we outlined some basic strategies for looking at the market. Yet what ultimately matters to our bottom line isn't "the market", per se, but our positions in it. Just as there are a few indicators to monitor ...
How to Watch the Market; Keep an eye on these indices and indicators to make better sense of where stocks are headed.
SmartMoney.comWe think of the stock market as simply a listing of corporations and shares prices, but in reality it's so much more than that. In fact, every human being in the world is directly part of it. Even if you've never traded a stock in ...
Is This the Dollar's Great Decline? The British pound peaked in 1934 and the dollar seems to be in a similar downward spiral
SmartMoney.comHard to believe given this month's horrific mob violence, but there was a time when England's economy and currency were the undisputed pillar of world dominance. Countries ranging from Australia to Jamaica to South Africa utilized ...
High-Frequency Trading Fears Do Not Compute; Computer-driven trading is still trading, not a smash-and-grab robbery.
SmartMoney.comSince the industrial revolution, we've had an irrational fear of technology. Despite its undeniable ability to make life better, many of us remain paranoid that technological advances will end up destroying or replacing us. From ...
First Rule in Panics: Don't Panic; When markets turn stormy, follow your trading plan -- not your emotions.
SmartMoney.comYou have to go back to the summer of 2008 to find the last time we saw shares of multi-billion dollar banks moving 20% of more and plumbing new lows -- as Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Sun Trust Banks and others have in recent ...
As U.S. Stumbles, Russia Looks More Attractive; Investors looking for alternative may want to swap their dollars for rubles.
SmartMoney.comWith the U.S. stripped by Standard & Poor's of its triple-A credit rating, investors worldwide are looking for alternatives. When it comes to choosing a country in which to allocate assets, the most private economies are ...
When Will Uncle Sam Dump GM? The federal government has already lost enough on its investment in the automaker.
SmartMoney.comImagine you had a huge losing position in a stock that was falling fast and you desperately needed cash to pay your bills. You'd probably sell your stock.
What Happens When Bad Ideas Fester; North Korea provides a telling example of a state-owned and centrally planned economy.
SmartMoney.comAs the nation's debt swells and economy flounders, politicians of all stripes push a myriad of plans and proposals, as if it's only the right Excel spreadsheet that's needed to determine how best to allocate and create ...
When Your Stock Soars, Buy More; You should always look to add more shares to a winning trade in a strong stock.
SmartMoney.comAmong skydivers, there's an old adage that it's the second jump that's the hardest. We've already survived one dangerous, near-death experience, so the thinking goes, so why push our luck with another plunge?
Stock Market Warfare Is About Planning -- Not Fighting; Lessons for investors from Sun Tzu's "The Art of War."
SmartMoney.comWritten in the 6th century, Sun Tzu's "The Art of War" remains one of the most widely quoted and most beloved books on investment strategy, most recently immortalized by Michael Douglas's Gordon Gekko in the 1987 film ...
Italian Debt: Now Worth a Look? As bond prices swoon, some value investors are seeing opportunity. But beware: Picking the bottom is a dangerous game.
SmartMoney.comI'm not a bottom fisher, value buyer or knife catcher. Because markets are never wrong, but opinions often are, I hold fast to the philosophy that one must acquiesce to the market -- not argue with it. To that end, I see a security ...
Ailing Economy Needs Self-Interest, Not Sacrifice; Mankind has benefited far more from Bill Gates making billions than from him giving it away.
SmartMoney.comWhen you trade shares of Cisco, no one is sacrificing himself on your behalf. You're a willing buyer, someone else is an amenable seller, and you voluntarily agree to transact at a mutually beneficial price. Both parties get what they ...
The Beauty of Currency Baskets; Funds that hold several currencies provide a less-risky way to play foreign exchange
SmartMoney.comMarket biases are deeply engrained, a reality often evidenced by the public's slow adoption of new investment ideas. Just as it took a decade of growth to finally convince investors to add gold to their portfolios, currency ETFs, ...
Love the Trade You're With; We often mistakenly dump profitable trades that don't fit our original investment thesis.
SmartMoney.comFirst loves aren't remembered, but memorialized. I can still picture Samantha's slightly mischievous 20-something smile, her smooth, lightly freckled face peeking out from shoulder-length auburn hair. Yet we move on -- she's ...
How to Play Japan's Bounce; With Japanese stocks up 10% since March, it's tempting to cut back exposure. Don't.
SmartMoney.comIt was just over three months ago when Japan experienced its worst nuclear disaster ever and the Nikkei 225 stock index plunged the most since the 1987 crash. Not exactly good times.
Another Bad Omen for Stocks? The falling S&P 500 could soon drop below its 200-day moving average for the first time since last fall -- a possible indicator of bad news ahead.
SmartMoney.comTechnical analysis has never been given the same respect as fundamental analysis, mainly because it's only concerned with a stock's price, while the latter looks a whole host of issues including a company's sales, earnings ...
The One Stimulus Government Hasn't Tried; Lawmakers should face the facts: Intervention is hurting, not helping, the economy.
SmartMoney.comWe tend to think of the Federal Reserve Chairman as an omnipotent deity, but at his Wednesday afternoon press conference Ben Bernanke admitted even he's somewhat bewildered as to the economy's continued lethargy in spite of ...
Pruning a Bad Bet on Bonds; After betting against bonds for months, Jonathan Hoenig admits he's been wrong -- or at least, too early. What to do now.
SmartMoney.comIn the markets, losing trades are unavoidable even for the most accomplished investors. As Carl Ichan put it recently, "In my business, if losing money shakes you up, you won't last until spring, let alone become a raider in ...
Cheap Stocks That Still Aren't Worth It; When the market does rally again, these familiar names are likely to get left behind, writes Jonathan Hoenig.
SmartMoney.comWith the markets poised to perhaps drop for a seventh consecutive week, the longest losing streak in a decade, it's starting to feel as if stocks won't ever rally again. Amid turmoil in Greece and in Washington, investors have ...
Weiner's Most Shameful Reveal; CEOs are held personally responsible for honest disclosures. Why aren't politicians?
SmartMoney.comBy now you've probably seen enough -- literally -- of Anthony Weiner, the New York City Congressman embroiled in a scandal involving online relationships with several women, including his sending suggestive photos taken from the House ...
Why GM Has Further to Fall; The automaker's shares have already fallen 22% this year. Sell it short anyway, writes Jonathan Hoenig.
SmartMoney.comIn a weak stock market, one of the worst performing names has been General Motors, now down 22% this year to a new post-bankruptcy low of $28.40 earlier this week.
What Skyscrapers Say About Markets; Stocks dive after construction of a tall tower begins, new research shows.
SmartMoney.comA compelling new study makes a rather startling claim: the construction of record-breaking skyscrapers can predict stock returns. Using data reaching back to 1871, Gunther Loffler, a professor at Germany's University of Ulm, found U.S. ...
Betting on the Next Big Drop? Bad Idea; Investors buying pricey volatility-linked funds are hoping for an extremely rare event -- even given Wednesday's plunge.
SmartMoney.comSince their launch in 2006, volatility-linked options, notes and funds based on the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, have generally been a losing bet for investors. The assortment of funds and notes, of which there are now nearly a dozen, ...
For Best Telecom Plays, Look Abroad; As the sector's weighting in the S&P 500 shrinks, the good buys are outside the U.S.
SmartMoney.comIf you're like an increasing number of Americans, the first thing you attend to every morning is your smartphone. A recent study by Ericcson ConsumerLab indicated that more than one third of Android/iPhone owners use the device before ...
Could a Currency Collapse Happen Here? The horrific scenario playing out this week in Belarus should serve as a warning to the U.S.
SmartMoney.comMy idea of an economic nightmare isn't a stock market crash, but a currency crisis which destroys the value of an entire country's wealth.
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